Concerns about a US economic recession faded, and copper prices rose overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,083/mt, initially dipped to $9,066/mt, then climbed to a high of $9,175/mt during the session, and finally closed at $9,138/mt, up 2.16%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest reached 286,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2409 contract opened at 73,340 yuan/mt, initially dipped to 73,090 yuan/mt, then rose to a high of 73,980 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closed at 73,750 yuan/mt, up 1.92%. Trading volume reached 53,000 lots, and open interest reached 158,000 lots.

Macro side, the US July retail sales MoM, known as the "scary data," recorded 1%, far exceeding expectations. Initial jobless claims last week also hit the lowest level since July, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. Meanwhile, domestic consumption improved, and the risk of supply disruptions at Chilean copper mines pushed copper prices higher. Fundamentally, supply side, overall arrivals decreased. Demand side, current downstream consumption has some support. As of Thursday, August 15, SMM copper stocks in major regions nationwide decreased by 17,200 mt WoW to 301,600 mt, and by 36,800 mt compared to last Thursday, marking the fifth consecutive week of destocking, with the destocking speed accelerating. Overall, copper prices are expected to have some support, and today's copper prices are expected to remain high.