Downstream demand is unlikely to improve, polysilicon prices continue to fall

The mainstream transaction prices of P-type dense polysilicon stood at 40-46 yuan/kg last week, and 45-53 yuan/kg for N-type polysilicon. The price of polysilicon market continued to fall last week. The overall sentiment in the upstream market is currently poor. The inventory of polysilicon is approaching the 250,000-ton mark. Leading companies are under great pressure to clear inventory. Crystal pulling plants push for lower prices. Polysilicon plants have no large-scale maintenance plans for the time being, and prices are still under downward pressure.

Silicon wafer: The mainstream traded prices of domestic 182 mm monocrystalline silicon wafer were 1.6-1.7 yuan/piece last week, and those of 182 mm N-type silicon wafer stood at 1.5-1.65 yuan/piece. The price of silicon wafers remained stable. Although the inventory of silicon wafer companies is high, it is mainly concentrated in the top companies.

Cell: Solar cell prices fell last week, mainly reflected in topcon cell, which fell by 0.01 yuan/w. Currently, there are signs of production cuts of modules. The leading module manufacturers had high sales volumes in March and April, and restocked sufficient inventory. The demand for solar cell is expected to weaken in May, while production of Topcon cell is still increasing. The inventory of Topcon cells is increasing. As PERC cells are in a state of continuous losses, their prices remain stable. The subsequent demand for PERC210 may rise.

Module: The average mainstream transaction price of bifacial-182mm monocrystalline PERC modules was 0.81-0.91 yuan/w, and the average mainstream transaction price of bifacial-210mm monocrystalline PERC modules was 0.83-0.94 yuan/w. Domestic traded prices of module shifted downward. Currently, the inventory of module companies shows a certain upward trend. The downstream purchasing is limited. Prices are unlikely to improve in the short term.

According to SMM statistics for the week from April 15, 2024 to April 21, 2024, 22 domestic photovoltaic module companies won bids for projects. The winning price was concentrated between 0.86-0.89 yuan/watt; the weekly weighted average price was 0.87 yuan/watt; the total purchased capacity of the winning bid was 11359.33MW, an increase of 8854.69MW compared with the previous week. The pace of delivery has cooled slightly recently, but there were clear signs of recovery in the bidding market in April. The pace of procurement and delivery is expected to gradually pick up, and overall demand is promising. As prices in the upstream industry chain continue to fall and have not yet stabilized, downstream end-users still expect module prices to fall. Transaction prices are likely to fall further.

EVA: Last week, the price of photovoltaic-grade EVA continued to decline. The price of photovoltaic film remained unchanged and no significant fluctuation is expected in the next two weeks. The price of foam-grade EVA remained basically unchanged last week; the price of cable-grade EVA continued to decline, but the drop narrowed. Photovoltaic films prices remained stable amid cost pressure. Film companies are under great pressure, with some companies experiencing significant losses. White film profits remain stable at a high level, and prices have not yet seen any significant adjustments.

Photovoltaic glass: Last week the price of photovoltaic glass stabilized. The price of 2.0mm single-layer coated glass is 17.5-18.5 yuan/square meter, and the price of 3.2mm single-layer coated glass is 26.5-27.5 yuan/square meter. The mainstream transaction prices are 18.0 and 26.5 yuan/square meter respectively. There were fewer transactions in the market. The recent demand has slightly declined. Glass inventory has increased slightly. The industry inventory is about 20 days. Glass prices are expected to be stable in May.

High-purity quartz sand: The price of high-purity quartz sand fell last week, and the subsequent price will continue to fall slightly. The domestic price of inner layer sand is 190,000-230,000 yuan/ton, the price of middle layer sand is 100,000-130,000 yuan/ton, and the price of outer layer sand is 24,000-80,000 yuan/ton. Last week, domestic quartz sand companies began to quote prices to downstream companies. Prices began to fall due to sluggish demand and increased inventory, and are expected to continue to decline slightly in the future.

Inverters: Last week, the price of 20 kw grid-connected inverters was 0.15-0.19 yuan/W, the price of 50kw was 0.14-0.18 yuan/W, and the price of 110kw was 0.12-0.17 yuan/W. Prices remained stable overall. The inverter supply is ample and the production schedule of high-power inverters has been increased. The shipments were stable, with high growth rates in domestic and overseas demand in regions such as India, Pakistan and Brazil. Shipments from Europe were affected by inventory issues.