China new alumina capacity 2024 and beyond

As of March 2024, domestic installed alumina capacity was 100 million mt, which does not include closed capacity that has no hope of immediate resumptions.

Newly constructed alumina projects in China in 2023 was 5 million mt, and most of the projects were located in coastal ports and areas with convenient water transportation along the Yangtze River. Most of the new alumina production capacity in 2024 will be located in coastal port cities. Project 3 in Fangchengguang was planned to be put into operation in 2024, with 2 million mt of production capacity. Projects that can be put into operation in 2025 include project 1 in Beihai (Phase I of 2 million mt), Project 2 (Phase I of 2 million mt) and Project 5 (2.4 million mt) located in Fangchenggang, totaling 6.4 million mt. In the past two years, new capacity was clustered in port cities with mature conditions, such as Guangxi with Fangchenggang, Hebei with Caofeidian, and Chongqing which can rely on the Yangtze River water transportation to transport ore and expand the sales of alumina finished products. The newly invested alumina refineries can take such advantages to reduce the logistics costs, thereby reducing its own costs and maintaining a certain advantage amid the fierce competition.

Overall, new capacity was put into operation, high-cost production capacity was challenged, dependence on bauxite imports continues to deepen, and the oversupply continued to suppress alumina prices, reflecting the fierce competition in the industry. SMM will continue to pay attention to new capacity and capacity elimination in the industry.