SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Mar 19)

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2404 aluminum contract opened at 19,285 yuan/mt, with its lowest and highest at 19,245 yuan/mt and 19,425 yuan/mt before closing at 19,345 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.36%. LME aluminum opened at $2,272.5/mt yesterday, with its high and low at $2,294/mt and $2,261/mt respectively before closing at $2,276.5/mt, down $0.5/mt or 0.02%.

On the macro level, State Council released favourable policies to boost demand. Attitude towards cutting interest rates swung in Europe and the US, which coupled with the US presidential election, bringing uncertainty to aluminum prices. Yunnan aluminium smelters will begin to resume production this week, which is in line with previous expectations and does not have a strong impact on the prices. The arrivals of peak season boosted downstream operating rates. Aluminum ingot inventory rose at a slower pace and is likely to peak, supporting aluminum prices. We need to pay attention to when aluminium ingot inventory will begin to decline and fluctuations in expectations of overseas interest rate cuts.