SMM Daily Analysis of Hot Coil: Contradiction between supply and demand has not yet emerged, with short-term volatility being the main trend.

Today, hot coil futures first rose and then fell, closing at 4047, a decrease of 1.03%. In terms of spot prices, mainstream city prices remained stable. According to SMM research, this week's hot-rolled production fluctuated slightly, but with the further weakening of maintenance impact, there may be pressure to increase hot coil supply. Currently, terminal demand still shows resilience, but it is undeniable that the cold wave in the north may lead to further contraction of demand, and the pace of inventory reduction can be maintained for a while in the short term. Overall, short-term cost support is not likely to collapse, macro speculation has temporarily come to a halt, and there is a risk of a retracement based on unfulfilled expectations. However, the fundamental contradiction of hot coil has not yet emerged, and there is limited downward space. The focus should return to the fundamentals in the future, paying attention to the game between supply increment and demand stock.