LME zinc: At the beginning of the week, the bullish sentiment ignited by the US inflation data gradually cooled down, leading to profit-taking and a steady downward trend in LME zinc. In addition, the New York Fed's Manufacturing Index for July recorded 1.1%, indicating a weak state of the manufacturing industry. The June retail sales in the US were lower than expected at 0.2%, but core sales remained relatively strong, rekindling expectations of a rate hike in July. Furthermore, with more than 20,000 mt of zinc delivered to LME, it further confirmed the weak overseas consumption. The US initial jobless claims data for the week ending July 15 decreased by 228,000, strengthening the US dollar due to the expectations of a rate hike in July, which created significant pressure for an upward movement in LME zinc. The market is awaiting macroeconomic guidance. As of last Friday 17:30, LME zinc prices finally closed at $2,373/mt, with a weekly decline of $61/mt or 2.51%.
SHFE zinc: At the beginning of the week, China's GDP YoY growth for the first half of the year was 5.5%. However, the second-quarter GDP growth rate was lower than expected at 6.3%, and real estate development investment decreased by 7.9%. The bullish sentiment from the market's macro perspective gradually calmed down, and the pressure from increased social inventories according to SMM weighed down SHFE zinc, leading to a downward trend. Subsequently, the National Development and Reform Commission indicated that it would expedite the formulation and issuance of policies to restore and expand consumption, which helped SHFE zinc stabilize and recover. There was also an expectation of reduced supply due to upcoming maintenance at smelters, providing a bottom support for zinc prices. However, in the spot market, customs data showed that refined zinc imports reached 45,000 mt in June, and the import window for refined zinc remained intermittently open, continuously impacting the spot market and gradually decreasing market premiums, which weakened support for zinc prices. As of last Friday 15:00, SHFE zinc prices finally closed at 20,200 yuan/mt, with a weekly decline of 95 yuan/mt or 0.47%.
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