SMM July 13: overnight copper opened at $ 8343 / ton, and then all the way higher near the end of the quotation touched higher than $ 8525 / ton, the end of the quotation sideways finishing finally closed at $ 8513.5 / ton, turnover to 21,000, the volume to 262,000, or 2.11% increase in holdings to 262,000 hands. Overnight SHFE copper main 2308 contract opened at 68040 yuan / ton, and then all the way up quotation touched higher than 68710 yuan / ton, the end of the quotation sideways finishing finally closed at 68560 yuan / ton, turnover to 44,000 hands, positions to 195,000 hands, or 1.23%.
Macro, the U.S. CPI data in June are expected to fall back, the U.S. unquartered CPI in June recorded an annual rate of 3%, the smallest increase since March 2021, back to the "3 era". This implies that the Federal Reserve may only need to raise interest rates once more this year, the dollar index jumped sharply, favoring copper prices.
Fundamentally, close to delivery, East China's spot premium and discount by the month difference guides stronger, but most of the downstream purchasing desire is not high, the transaction is not active. South China inventory increased for two consecutive days, mainly due to limited consumer demand, the willingness of the holders to ship at low prices is low, and more choose direct delivery.
Consumption, most of the downstream is not willing to bear the cost of back month difference, thus the overall purchasing willingness is not high, is expected to delivery for the month, the demand will be restored. Price, U.S. inflation slowed significantly, the market expects the Federal Reserve will end the tightening policy ahead of schedule, copper prices are expected to maintain a high level of operation in the short term.
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