SMM Aluminum Market Comment And Forecast (July 13)

July 12 night Shanghai aluminum main 2308 contract opened at 18225 yuan / ton, the lowest point of 18190 yuan / ton, the highest point of 18305 yuan / ton, closed at 18280 yuan / ton. Up 180 yuan / ton, or 0.99%. LME aluminum on the last trading day opened at $ 2171.5 / ton, the lowest point of $ 2164 / ton, the highest point of $ 2242.5 / ton, closed at $ 2238 / ton, up $ 69.5 / ton, up 3.20%.

Summary: Macro aspects of the U.S. CPI in June fell to the lowest level in more than two years, indicating that the Federal Reserve has achieved further success in the fight against inflation. In terms of fundamentals, the restarts of idled aluminium capacity in Yunnan Province will translate into greater supply pressure in late July. At the same time, there were rumours of power rationing in Sichuan. Aluminium ingot social inventory is expected to accumulate further as downstream consumption is in the off-season. In the short term, the resumption of aluminium production in Yunnan and weakening consumption margin will suppress aluminium prices, but low inventory on a year-on-year basis will keep SHFE front-month contract relatively resilient.