Macro Roundup (Jan 11)

SHANGHAI, Jan 11 —This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar was rangebound on Tuesday, hovering around its weakest level in seven months versus the euro and a group of other major currencies, as traders awaited U.S. inflation data later this week to help firm up interest rate hike expectations.

The euro was last up 0.07% against the greenback to $1.0735 just below a seven-month high of $1.07605 hit on Monday. Sterling dipped 0.18% to $1.21585, just below Monday’s three-week top.

The dollar has been trending lower as investors and traders question whether the Federal Reserve will have to increase its target interest rate beyond 5% to curb stubbornly high inflation, as the effects of the U.S. central bank’s aggressive hikes in borrowing costs in 2022 have already begun to show.

Data last week showed that while the U.S. economy added jobs at a solid clip in December, wage growth slowed, while another report showed that services activity weakened.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December is due on Thursday and is one of the last major economic reports before the Fed’s Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting.

Stock futures were quiet on Tuesday evening as Wall Street looked to build on what has been a positive start to 2023 so far.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 19 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed.

The moves come after the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.01% on Tuesday to clinch its first three-day winning streak since November. The S&P 500 and Dow rose 0.70% and 0.56%, respectively, and all three averages are positive for the young year.

The moves have featured a relief rally for more risky areas of the market, such as tech, but many investors are still cautious ahead of earnings season and further expected rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Oil prices edged slightly higher on Tuesday as the U.S. government forecast record global petroleum consumption next year and as the dollar hovered at seven-month lows.

Global consumption of liquid fuels is forecast to reach 102.2 million barrels per day in 2024, driven primarily by growth in countries like India and China, reflecting trends in economic activity, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Brent futures rose 45 cents or 0.6%, to settle at $80.10 a barrel, while U.S. crude ended 49 cents, or 0.6% higher at $75.12 per barrel.

Gold traded near an 8-month high Tuesday as the precious metal’s strong start to 2023 continued, buoyed by lower yields and a weaker dollar.

Spot gold hit $1,881.5 per troy ounce on Monday, its highest point since May 9, before cooling off as U.S. Federal Reserve officials signaled further aggressive monetary policy action to combat inflation.

Gold was last up 0.32% at $1,877.56 per ounce. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $1,876.5.

European markets retreated on Tuesday, with caution returning to global sentiment as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech to Sweden’s Riksbank.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.56% lower provisionally, with retail stocks shedding 1.4% to lead losses as all sectors slid into the red bar autos, which was flat.