Peng Guangchun, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, said on the program that the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales will slow down next year, and the rise in lithium prices will ease next year. On the supply side, many companies are mining lithium resources all over the world, and the capacity will be centrally released in the next 1-2 years.
The following is the essence of the text:
Host: what do you think of the supply and demand of lithium and lithium batteries?
Peng Guangchun: now the market is really worried about rising upstream prices, leading to shrinking downstream demand, but I think deeply myself. From several levels, one is that from the perspective of this country, the domestic, European, American and European lithium prices are relatively reasonable. Without such exaggeration in Chinese prices, European prices are only three to half of those in China.
From a domestic point of view, the domestic price has actually risen to so much that the cost of each car has risen by almost 5000 to 10000 yuan, with battery enterprises, vehicle enterprises, and consumers all bear part of it. The impact on downstream demand is controllable, and the price may be only one or two thousand yuan at the consumer level.
The possibility that it will continue to rise in the future is not very high. The growth rate of sales this year is relatively good, and it has been reflected in the price of lithium carbonate in advance, because the raw material quality inventory will be prepared in every link, and the price has been reacted in advance.
Sales of new energy vehicles next year will not grow as high as this year, and the rise in lithium prices will ease somewhat next year. On the supply side, many companies are mining lithium resources all over the world, and the capacity will be centrally released in the next 1-2 years.
Lithium carbonate upstream link, this year's performance certainty is relatively high, investors can actively pay attention. But this link may be confused in the next 2-3 years, after all, it is a periodic track, but this year should not be a big problem.
No one can see clearly in the next 2-3 years. After the release of production capacity at that time, some leading enterprises are now relieving their excessive dependence on lithium through technological innovation, mainly in several aspects, including power replacement, battery recycling, and battery fast charging technology. dependence on lithium carbonate is actually weakening.
And finally, I would like to highlight that this is a very important point. The price of lithium carbonate may affect the sales of more than 50, 000 cars, but the domestic product structure has been greatly adjusted. Now, the proportion of sales of models mainly focused on 200000 is very high. The cost transfer of lithium carbonate has a relatively small impact on more than 200000 of cars, but it may indeed have an impact on cars of less than 50, 000. Therefore, the overall sales of domestic car companies should be more controllable.
Peng Guangchun: the price of lithium carbonate this year, from the industry chain performance model, may indeed have some cost pressure on second-line battery factories, so the stock price performance of second-line battery companies is weak recently, but the pressure on leading enterprises should be controllable.
However, at present, many enterprises are good at hedging against price fluctuations through inventory management, and even because inventory management also has a relatively good inventory income, the performance of many battery companies in the fourth quarter of last year exceeded expectations very much. This exceeding expectation actually comes from lithium carbonate inventory income.
Therefore, from a dialectical point of view, we can see that it is a bad effect of bad profit, but if the supply chain is done well, there will be better inventory returns.
The second point is to solve this problem fundamentally, and some second-line battery companies have also made a great layout in the lithium carbonate mining link. After a year or two, production capacity is released. For enterprises in the future, one is to guarantee supply, and the second is to reduce cost pressure. From the first quarter to the second quarter of this year, some second-line battery companies have a little pressure, but the long-term problem is not big.
