According to media reports, industry sources revealed that the new energy storage development plan of the 14th five-year Plan will be officially launched in the near future.
The new type of energy storage refers to the new electric energy storage technology in addition to pumped energy storage, including lithium battery, compressed air, liquid flow, flywheel, sodium battery, hydrogen storage, heat storage and so on.
At present, the installed scale of pumping energy storage accounts for more than 80% in our country, but there are some problems, such as geographical location limitation, long construction period of power station, large early investment and so on. The new type of energy storage has the advantages of small geographical limitations, short construction period and continuous decline in cost, which plays a vital role in the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body.
The related policies of the new type of energy storage have gradually landed in the market space of nearly 100 billion yuan.
Since the second half of 2021, under the background of the acceleration of the transformation of energy structure, the related policies of new energy storage have been gradually landed. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have drafted the guidance on accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage (draft for soliciting opinions), proposing to realize the transformation of new energy storage from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development by 2025, the installed scale will reach more than 30 million kilowatts; by 2030, the comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage will be realized, and the core technology and equipment of new energy storage can be controlled independently.
Previously, Liu Yafang, deputy director of the Science and Technology and equipment Department of the National Energy Administration, predicted at the sixth China Energy Storage Western Forum that China's new energy storage capacity would exceed 4 million kilowatts by the end of 2021.
According to incomplete statistics, at present, more than 20 provinces have required or recommended the allocation of energy storage for new energy power stations, the allocation proportion is about 10%, and the configuration time is about 2 hours.
According to CNESA statistics, by the end of 2020, the cumulative scale of domestic energy storage projects is 35.6GW, of which the scale of non-pumped energy storage is about 3.8GW, which means that the new energy storage scale built in China during the 14th five-year Plan period will reach more than 26GW. If calculated according to the 2-hour allocation capacity, then corresponding to the new energy storage capacity above 50GWh, with reference to the domestic lithium energy storage system cost of 1500 yuan / KWh in 2020, the corresponding market space is nearly 100 billion yuan.
Among a number of new energy storage routes, electrochemical energy storage has the widest range of application and the highest commercial maturity. By the end of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of global energy storage was 191.1 GW, of which the cumulative scale of pumping energy storage was the largest, followed by electrochemical energy storage. Although the cumulative scale was far less than that of pumping energy storage, it increased by 49% compared with the same period last year, which was 48% higher than that of pumping energy storage.
The above-mentioned "guidance" also proposes that the research on the safety technology of electrochemical energy storage will be strengthened, the diversification of energy storage technology will be persisted, and the cost of relatively mature new energy storage technologies such as lithium-ion batteries will continue to decline and be applied on a commercial scale.
Huang Xiuyu, an analyst at Dongguan Securities, and Su Chen, an analyst at Sino-Thai Securities, have all released research reports earlier, and it is expected that electrochemical energy storage will become the main development direction of energy storage in the future. Deng Yongkang, an analyst at Anxin Securities, estimates that the size of the global electrochemical energy storage market for power systems is expected to exceed 500 billion in 2025, with broad room for growth. Domestic lithium iron phosphate energy storage products are expected to continue to increase market share by virtue of high performance-to-price ratio in the future, and Chinese enterprises have a bright future.
Peng Guangchun, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, further said that energy storage is an indispensable part of the new energy power system. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the following main investment lines: 1) the high quality targets of deep ploughing energy storage batteries: Ningde era, BYD, Penghui Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc.; 2) New innovative energy storage routes (sodium ion batteries) high quality targets: Ningde era, Huayang shares, Zhejiang Medicine, etc. 3) the high-quality targets of the inverter industry: sunshine Power supply, Jinlang Technology, Gu Dewei, etc.; 4) the high-quality targets of the system integration industry: Paron Technology and Shenghong shares.
