Guosheng Securities: demand expectation boosts risk preference for Industrial Metals, Cobalt and Lithium prices continue to hit record highs

Precious metals: the situation in Ukraine and Russia is getting worse, with risk aversion and inflation supporting the rise in gold prices.

Gold: 1 nominal interest rate: the minutes of the FOMC meeting in January are partial to market expectations, and the market's originally radical interest rate hike expectations are facing adjustment. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell slightly to 1.92% this week, making it difficult to break through 2% in the short term. 2 inflation expectations: commodity supply concerns represented by energy and crude oil continue to push up market inflation and raise interest rates until the initial stage of economic transmission. It may be difficult to change the upward trend of CPI. The situation in Russia and Ukraine had a significant impact on precious metal prices during the week. After Russia announced the withdrawal of some troops from the Ukrainian border on Wednesday, market risk aversion eased, and then Biden insisted on warning that the possibility of Russian invasion of Ukraine was very high. Risk aversion pushed gold prices above $1900. Pay short-term attention to the oil price-inflation transmission & the evolution of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.

Base metals: seasonal accumulation continues, and the peak season is expected to push prices upward.

(1) Copper: 1 in the macro aspect, the minutes of the FOMC meeting in January were more than the market expected, and the previous radical interest rate hike expectation was revised, and the macro risk of copper price gradually eased and landed. 2 on the supply side, according to the 2021 annual report of Southern Copper, the annual copper output in 2021 was 958000 tons, a decrease of 4.3% over the same period last year. It is expected that 922000 tons of copper will be produced in 2022, which continues to decline slightly from the same period last year, mainly due to the decline in copper ore grade and recovery. The current copper supply side contradiction is not prominent, the import spot copper concentrate TC transaction around 64 US dollars / ton, need to continue to pay attention to Chile's old mine reduction and Kamoa represented by the new mine release situation; 3 demand-inventory, the global copper inventory (including SHFE) + bonded + LME+COMEX exchange) is 573700 tons, compared with last week accumulated 31500 tons. Among them, domestic social inventory increased by 32500 tons, bonded area increased by 4000 tons, LME inventory and remained unchanged this year, COMEX copper depot 5000 tons, the previous period of inventory increased by 29700 tons. Spot demand is still weak, inventory accumulated seasonally, SHFE inventory ring this week 29700 tons to 136000 tons, total inventory has rebounded to the normal level. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the opening rate of refined copper rods continued to decline in January and February. Under the low inventory, the domestic spot still maintains a high rising water, traders make shipments at a positive price, and the domestic demand is optimistic; LME inventory is still around 70, 000 tons, LME0-3 maintains a strong back structure of US $50 / ton, the import price continues to fall, and strong overseas consumption supports the upward shock of copper prices. Continue to pay attention to the resumption of work after the holiday and the inflection point of inventory.

(2) Aluminum: 1 inventory: this week, the three major exchanges accumulated 2200 to 1.2006 million tons of inventory, LME inventory returned to the state of destocking. The domestic social treasury has increased by 5.81 to 1.0551 million tons, and the current accumulation level is still at a low level. 2 on the supply side: at present, the production capacity to be resumed is mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi provinces. On February 17, there were 22 new confirmed cases in Hohhot and Baotou, Inner Mongolia. The output of electrolytic aluminum in Inner Mongolia accounted for 15% of the total domestic output in 2021. If the fermentation of the epidemic situation in the province affects the local electrolytic aluminum supply (start-transport), it will have a significant impact on domestic supply, and the actual impact remains to be seen. 3 demand: affected by the epidemic situation, the environmental protection policy of the Winter Olympic Games and high aluminum prices, some downstream processing enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Henan are still in a state of shutdown, and other provinces have started work and resumed production one after another. the overall order demand is climbing. In addition, 6063 aluminum bar processing fees rose again this week, proving that the recovery of downstream demand is better than downstream. The seasonal peak season for aluminum processing began in late March, and the big difference between this peak season and 2021 lies in the obvious recovery of energy and power supply, and downstream construction is expected to maintain the normal state, so we expect the subsequent electrolytic aluminum accumulation rate to decline in February. The fundamentals of supply and demand starting in late March are expected to significantly support the strength of aluminum prices, and the follow-up inventory trend is the focus of the current aluminum prices. Suggested attention: Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, Mingtai Aluminum, Jinxin, Nanshan Aluminum, Suotong Development, Shenhuo, Tianshan Aluminum, Chinalco, Yunnan Aluminum.

Energy metals: the spot market remains tight, and the price of cobalt and lithium continues to hit a new high.

(1) Lithium: (1) Lithium: during the week, electric carbon rose 50, 000 yuan / ton to 445400 yuan / ton, and the spot market was strong. Lithium concentrate price growth has slowed down, lithium carbonate price breakthrough electricity carbon profit space rose 44700 yuan / ton to 236800 yuan / ton within the week. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 452000 and 431000 respectively, an increase of 1.3 and 1.4 times respectively over the same period last year. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 17%, and the supply and demand pattern of new energy continued to improve. (2) Nickel: this week, SHFE nickel rose 3.38% to 177890 yuan / ton, and nickel sulfate rose 1.19% to 42500 yuan / ton. Although Qingshan high nickel matte began to flow into China, there is still a structural gap in the raw material of nickel sulfate in the short term, which needs to be replenished by soluble nickel beans. Under the high cost loss and production reduction in the early stage, with the centralized purchase by large factories after the festival, the spot inventory of nickel sulfate becomes tight after continuous consumption, and the price of nickel sulfate continues to be repaired by upward profit, but the current profit level is still difficult to stimulate the rapid recovery of the supply end. It is expected that the short-term spot will remain tight, and the price still has room to go up; (3) Cobalt: domestic electrolytic cobalt is 536500 yuan / ton, with a ring increase of 17500 yuan / ton; Cobalt sulfate was quoted at 113000 yuan / ton, up 1500 yuan / ton; MB cobalt price was at 34.93 US dollars / pound, slightly higher; cobalt intermediate CIF quoted price rose to 31.09 US dollars / lb, the discount factor was unchanged at 89 per cent. After 2000, downstream enterprises have resumed production, alloy and magnetic materials procurement demand is strong. Upstream intermediate goods continue to be in shortage, superimposed because of concerns about future inventory, downstream bullish sentiment is becoming more and more obvious. In January, the production, marketing and installed capacity of new energy continued the rapid development trend of last year, and the price of energy metals accelerated after the festival, constantly breaking through new highs. The profit margin of cobalt sulfate processing rose to 54400 yuan / ton within the week. Suggested attention: Huayou Cobalt Industry, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Tianqi Lithium Industry, Rongjie shares, Yahua Group, Salt Lake shares, Tibet Mining, Hanrui Cobalt Industry, Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Xiamen Tungsten Xinneng, Shengtun Mining, Jinli permanent Magnet.

Risk hints: the global economic recovery is not as expected, the global epidemic development is higher than expected risk, political risk and so on.