Overseas lithium mining projects have encountered "changes" when they are put into production. On January 18th, both Rio Tinto and Allkem announced that their lithium mine projects had been postponed. Industry insiders say lithium supplies may be tight throughout 2022, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise by about 80% in the first half of the year.
Limited supply
Rio Tinto said it expected sales of its Jadar lithium borate project in Serbia to be postponed from 2026 to 2027 due to a delay in development license approval. Allkem said that due to the impact of the epidemic and delays in project approval, the first production time of the first phase of the SaldeVida project is expected to be postponed to the second half of 2023.
"the main increase in lithium production in 2022 will come from the extraction of lithium from salt lakes. Even if it is optimistic, the supply and demand of lithium will remain tight in 2022. " The person in charge of Mount Qomolangma in Tibet said in an interview with a reporter from the China Securities News.
Industry insiders believe that the supply gap of lithium resources is relatively large in 2022, and the gap may be narrowed in 2023. Everbright Securities pointed out that the output of new lithium resources is small in 2022, and the gap between supply and demand of global lithium resources is about 34000 tons. LCE.2023, a large number of new ore and salt lake projects have been put into production worldwide, and the gap between supply and demand will narrow.
Disturbing factors continue to appear. Guotai Junan said that in the short and medium term, the Chilean election will not affect the lithium supply of planned capacity. However, in the long run, untapped resources projects may be delayed, limiting the long-term release of global lithium resources.
Strong demand
The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 342000 yuan / ton and 286500 yuan / ton, respectively, according to SMM.
"Click to view the spot price of SMM metal
"in fact, the market transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 360000 yuan and 375000 yuan per ton." Wang Hong, sales director of Nantong Yuehua New material Technology Co., Ltd., told China Securities News.
The price of lithium salt has risen sharply, while demand from the new energy sector remains strong. According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the cumulative sales of power batteries in China reached 186.0 GWH in 2021, an increase of 182.3% over the same period last year. Among them, the cumulative sales of ternary batteries were 79.6 GWH, an increase of 128.9% over the same period last year, and the sales of lithium iron phosphate batteries were 106.0 GWH, an increase of 245.0% over the same period last year.
According to the New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035), the new car sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total new car sales by 2025. The China Automobile Association predicts that sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 5 million in 2022, an increase of 42 per cent over the same period last year.
The above-mentioned person in charge of Mount Qomolangma in Tibet told the China Securities News that the demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow rapidly from 2021 to 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 34.4%, while the average annual compound growth rate of lithium resource supply from 2020 to 2023 is 29.6%. The next three years will be in a state of insufficient lithium supply.
Notably, Allkem expects the price of lithium carbonate to rise by about 80 per cent in the first half of 2022.
