SMM July 21: opened this morning, lithium concept stocks quickly rose, changing the malaise trend of a few days ago, once again "against the wind", setting off a new round of plate carnival. In intraday trading, 24 shares, including Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie shares, Mount Qomolangma in Tibet, Jiuwu Hi-Tech and Tianqi Lithium Industry, etc., were once strongly pulled up to seal the trading limit.
On the face of the news, Fulin Seiko announced on the evening of July 20 that its subsidiary Jiangxi sublimation plans to increase its investment in the construction of an annual lithium iron phosphate cathode material project with an annual output of 250000 tons, with an estimated total investment of 4 billion yuan. Among them, the first phase has an annual output of 60,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode material project.
In addition, Tiantie Co., Ltd. also announced that the wholly-owned subsidiary intends to invest 1 billion yuan in lithium salt and other projects. Hefei Guoxuan Hi-Tech Power Energy Co., Ltd. (referred to as Hefei Guoxuan) officially signed a cooperation agreement with the management committee of Hefei Xinzhan High-tech Industrial Development Zone to build a 20GWh power battery production base in Xinzhan High-tech Zone, which will focus on the production and manufacture of Volkswagen standard batteries.
However, all these have little impact on the carnival of the lithium plate. Lithium electricity plate as a very strong performance in 2021, the market generally maintains a very optimistic attitude towards its future. With the continuous popularity of the field of new energy vehicles, the problem of "battery shortage" has gradually emerged.
According to the latest BofA report, an imminent threat to electric vehicles around the world is that their battery supplies could be depleted as early as 2025. BofA expects global battery shortages to intensify further between 2026 and 2030 as the penetration of electric vehicles continues to rise in all markets. This news may detonate one of the inducements of the lithium plate.
It is worth mentioning that with the aggravation of the "battery shortage", the price of power battery raw materials is rising. Among them, lithium hexafluorophosphate, one of the electrolyte raw materials whose prices have risen repeatedly in the first half of the year, is the most eye-catching. Due to the long release time of its production capacity, lithium hexafluorophosphate has been scrambled by BYD and Ningde era, and its industry inventory has already reached the lowest level in recent years. According to industry estimates, the supply gap of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 17000 tons in 2022, 35000 tons in 2023 and more than 60, 000 tons in 2024.
Of course, in addition to lithium hexafluorophosphate, a number of mid-stream enterprises also have to start grabbing upstream lithium ore resources because of the sharp rise in raw material prices. Ningde Times, Guoxuan Tech and Yiwei Lithium Energy have all begun to expand the production of power batteries-lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. According to SMM research, although the pressure on lithium carbonate inventory in China in the second quarter is increasing day by day, and prices are slightly lower, into the third and fourth quarters, SMM expects production in some parts of Qinghai to decline, and downstream worries about raw material supply will begin to stock ahead of schedule, and lithium carbonate prices will still rise to 100000 yuan / ton in the second half of the year.
As for lithium hydroxide, due to the limited increment at the supply end, lithium hydroxide has been in short supply. In addition, in June, some major manufacturers have entered the annual maintenance situation, making the already tight lithium hydroxide market even worse. The price of lithium hydroxide has obviously risen. In the second half of the year, with the release of new high-end models at home and abroad, the trend of high-nickel will be obviously reflected, so SMM expects the price of lithium hydroxide to still rise to 120000 yuan / ton in the second half of the year. "View details
According to the historical price of SMM, as of July 21, the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 88000 yuan / ton, up 70.9% for the year, while the average spot price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 97500 yuan / ton, up more than 98.7% for the year.
"Click to see more historical prices of SMM Metals.
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