Macro Roundup (Oct 20)

SHANGHAI, Oct 20 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar edged lower on Monday as investors were cautiously optimistic that an agreement in Washington on a fiscal stimulus package could be reached ahead of the Nov. 3 US election, and that a coronavirus vaccine will be ready by year-end.

The softness in the safe-haven greenback came after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that she believed stimulus legislation could be pushed through before Election Day, while acknowledging an agreement would have to come by Tuesday for that to happen.

Boosting overall market sentiment, drugmaker Pfizer Inc said on Friday it could potentially have a coronavirus vaccine ready in the United States by the end of the year.

On Wall Street, US stock futures rose on Monday evening ahead of a deadline for a new fiscal stimulus deal from Washington.

Futures contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 150 points, while those for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6% and 0.7%.

The move in futures comes after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin “continued to narrow their differences” in a Monday afternoon phone call to discuss another stimulus package, according to Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill. The speaker said that Tuesday is the deadline to reach an agreement before the Nov. 3 election.

Oil steadied on Monday, weighed by concerns over surging coronavirus cases globally and by Libya’s plan to boost output, but supported by hopes for a US fiscal package.

Analysts also focused on an OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee meeting on Monday. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said the committee recommended to stick in full to the group’s global deal to reduce oil production.

Weighing on markets, Libya has significantly boosted its output after the easing of a blockade by eastern forces in September. The 70,000-bpd Abu Attifel oilfield was expected to begin its restart on Oct. 24 after being shut down for months, two engineers said.

Meanwhile, worldwide coronavirus cases crossed 40 million on Monday. Many European governments are tightening lockdowns to curb the spread of the virus, renewing concerns about oil demand.

Gold rose about 1% on Monday as the dollar retreated and as expectations of a U.S. stimulus deal being reached ahead of the presidential elections in November bolstered bullion’s appeal as an inflation hedge.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said last week that talks were “over” and the UK should “get ready” to trade with the EU from Jan. 1 without a deal in place. In signs there could be some room to maneuver still, trade talks will continue on Monday but not in person, as previously planned.

In coronavirus news, Italy’s prime minister announced more measures to curb a second wave of infections Sunday, including restricted opening times for restaurants and limits on public gatherings. The move comes after more than 11,000 new cases were reported on Sunday.

China’s third-quarter GDP grew 4.9% as compared to a year ago, according to data released Monday by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. That compared against expectations by Chinese economists of 5.2% GDP growth in the third quarter.

China’s latest one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPRs), and US building permits and new house starts for September are set to be out today.