SMM4, 30th:
In late March, with the gradual resumption of work and production downstream, the social bank entered the stage of going to the warehouse, and the intensity of going to the bank was also higher than expected. As of April 30, the social bank was 113600 tons less than the previous high level. But through the investigation and understanding, in fact, this part of the inventory is transferred to the downstream raw material inventory, we found that in the zinc price in 14200-16000 yuan / ton this period of time, the downstream receiving stock is very good, the downstream raw material inventory days increased to 12 days, an increase of nearly 60% compared with the same period last year. After the zinc price rebounded to a recent high in recent days, the willingness to receive goods downstream became significantly weaker, and the spot market rose and fell back from the high level. In the future, we still need to pay attention to whether the purchase of downstream enterprises can drive the social bank to maintain the strength of the bank after the zinc price rebounds to a high level. And in the near future, the internal and external price comparison continues to repair, and the import profit and loss gradually returns to zero. At this level, the willingness of overseas zinc ingots to flow into the domestic market is also relatively strong, and in view of the limitations of ocean shipping, we need to guard against the risk of large inflows of imported zinc using offshore transport (Japan and South Korea).
Downstream, the galvanized plate led the overall zinc consumption, since March, the vast majority of large galvanizing plants have returned to production and capacity utilization has reached a high level, and even some enterprises reached full production in April, it is expected that the start of construction in May will be maintained.
In terms of capital and construction, infrastructure remains the most important force in boosting domestic demand this year. Recently, Chongqing, Guizhou, Hunan and other places have concentrated on a number of new infrastructure projects, and new infrastructure projects or investment plans in Anhui, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and other places have also been released one after another. On April 20, the Ministry of Finance said that it would issue another 1 trillion yuan in advance in recent days, and encouraged localities to strive for the completion of the issuance of 2.29 trillion yuan of new special bonds by the end of May this year. Excavator sales have also changed from negative to positive, and the growth rate of small excavation sales, which is strongly related to infrastructure projects, has reached 18.4%, driving the overall excavator sales, and the side confirms that under the current project catch-up period, the infrastructure sector has given a huge boost to consumption.
In the aspect of real estate, whether it is the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities, or the land transaction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities, it is still at the same time in recent years. As of April 19, the relative high of commercial housing inventory and sale in ten major cities fell to 52.66, which is still at the highest level since 2016, and the commercial housing turnover rate is poor, confirming that the current demand for real estate is still on the weak side.
On the automotive side, after the gradual resumption of work and production, local governments have frequently issued some car subsidy policies, but zero wholesale sales of passenger cars are still hovering at a low level in the same period. Car dealers warehouse-to-sales ratio is also high in the same period, reflecting the current inventory pressure of car enterprises is still on the high side, and the current demand has not yet reached the level of the same period last year, the willingness to start is still weak, production is only weak improvement. From late April to early May, overseas car companies also gradually returned to work and production, but in the global economic downturn, consumption collapse, car-driven zinc consumption is not optimistic.
To sum up, under the early issuance of special debt, the superposition is still in a rush period, the boost of infrastructure for zinc consumption in the second quarter is sustainable, and it is expected that the second quarter can still be kept to the warehouse.
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