[SMM Analysis] "Let it fly for a while": Guangdong Aluminum Bar Market under 1000 yuan processing fee

SMM4, 22nd:

After three years and four months, the processing fee in Guangdong aluminum bar market broke through 1000 yuan again: this morning, Guangdong aluminum bar quotation was 800-900 yuan / ton, the quantity was small and quickly swept away, then the market mainstream quotation rose sharply to around 1000 yuan, the high price of processing fee reached 1100 yuan / ton before noon, due to the low circulation of aluminum bars in the market, the downstream had to accept 1000 yuan processing fee to meet the needs of production.

In December 2016, Guangdong's processing fee broke 1,000 yuan for two main reasons: first, the arrival of goods in Northwest China, as the main source of goods, was delayed due to production and transportation problems, and second, the supply of remelting rods was also reduced as a result of strict environmental inspections in Guangdong. The scarcity of circulating aluminium bars in the market has led holders to raise prices, but processing fees have fallen quickly with the arrival of sea and steam aluminium bars in other regions.

The recent situation in Guangdong aluminum bar market is a little different:

1. At present, the stock of aluminum bars in public warehouses in Guangdong exceeds 60,000 tons, and at the end of 2016, the inventory of aluminum bars in public warehouses in Guangdong was once below 10,000 tons. There are no big problems in logistics and transportation, and the railway transportation in the northwest, the automobile transportation in the southwest and the shipping in North China are all in a smooth state.

2, April is a period of relatively strong demand, downstream production / orders are better than in December, there are a small number of low-price hoarding. At present, the remelting rod plants in Guangdong are producing at full load, and the remelting furnaces that can be opened by downstream processing enterprises are basically in operation, and the delivery cycle has also been extended. In addition, due to the lack of supply of waste aluminum, producers procured more aluminum ingots to produce remelting rods, and the processing cost rose to 700 to 800 yuan per ton.

3. The prices of aluminum bars in other areas have risen in varying degrees in April: the current Wuxi processing fee is 650700 yuan / ton, Nanchang mainstream processing fee is 750800 yuan / ton, Linyi processing fee is 650700 yuan / ton, Gongyi processing fee is 450500 yuan / ton, Baotou processing fee is 450500 yuan / ton. The amount of aluminum rods sent to Guangdong has been reduced as a result of local digestion of aluminum rods in some places of production.

Overall, the current round of Guangdong aluminum bar processing fee broke a thousand directly due to the market circulation of aluminum bars in short supply, quoted shipments of aluminum bar manufacturers and traders reduced, part of the downstream is in urgent need of aluminum bars to meet production orders. The game between buyers and sellers continues: in the afternoon, aluminum bars with processing fees of 1,000 yuan continue to be traded, profile enterprises send documents to adjust extrusion processing fees and delivery cycles, and just need to purchase in the lower reaches of the weekend and May Day Holiday. One after another, there are railway / sea aluminum bars, processing fees continue to rise after Wuxi / Nanchang aluminum bars may be forwarded to Guangdong. Therefore, in the short term, Guangdong aluminum bar processing fees are unlikely to rise and fall sharply, the price center of gravity may be maintained at 900-1000 yuan / ton, before the festival can only let it fly for a while.