Summary of lead morning meeting:
Macro:
It is reported that China's foreign trade returned to the surplus in March. In US dollar terms, China's exports were-6.6% year on year, and imports were-0.9%, both of which were significantly smaller than those from January to February. The trade balance turned to US $19.9 billion. After the resumption of work and resumption of production in March, some orders delayed due to the impact of the epidemic were delivered, allowing exports to improve in March compared with the previous two months, in the face of a sharp drop in external demand as a result of the deterioration of the overseas epidemic. [Lido]
With the consent of the State Council, from April 15 to December 31, the General Administration of Customs shall temporarily waive the levy of deferred tax interest on domestic sales of processing trade goods sold by enterprises.
The (IMF) predicts that the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, and that the situation could be even worse if the virus lingers or makes a comeback. It estimates that global GDP will shrink by 3 per cent this year and that global trade in goods and services is likely to fall by 11 per cent. The epidemic crisis also "poses a very serious threat to the stability of the global financial system".
As the epidemic stabilizes, Europe embarks on plans to return to work and production, some schools and shops will be opened in Austria and Denmark this week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will discuss the plan with state governors on Wednesday, and the European Commission has drafted a plan to coordinate national measures. The World Health Organization (WHO) warned that the epidemic "certainly" has not yet reached its peak.
While major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia have agreed to cut production again from May, production will remain open, with Saudi crude exports of 9.3 million barrels a day so far this month. Crude oil inventory growth will continue for at least a few more weeks. [Lido]
Fundamentals:
Shanghai period lead strong upward, but downstream fear high careful mining, inquiry enthusiasm decline, holder quotation rising water down one after another, among them, Shanghai market Shuikoushan, southern lead to Shanghai lead 2005 contract up 400-450 yuan / ton quotation, Wuxi market Shuikoushan lead to Shanghai lead 2005 contract rose 400 yuan / ton quotation, primary lead smelter to delivery long list mainly; recycled lead, but the actual transaction is still very few.
Lead price:
Lun lead trend is still in a strong trend, but the top is still under pressure in the 40-day moving average, mainly short-term shock; according to the last notice, there will be no night trading since February 3;
SMM1# lead prices are expected to fall by 100-150 yuan per tonne today.
