[2020.4.9 minutes of Nickel Internal Morning meeting] Nickel prices pick up spot transaction atmosphere weakens stainless steel prices low and wait and see

On the macro front, it is reported that Russia and other countries will agree to cut production by 1.6 million barrels per day at the upcoming OPEC+ emergency meeting. Algeria expects OPEC+ production to reach 10 million barrels per day. The Euro Group held a meeting in the hope that member countries can reach a consensus on the relief plan for the nearly 500 billion new crown pneumonia epidemic, but because of the great differences among the member states, finance ministers have not reached agreement on the relief plan for the new crown pneumonia epidemic. [bearish] US EIA crude oil stocks report: excluding strategic reserves, commercial crude oil stocks rose 15.177 million barrels to 484.4 million barrels, an increase of 3.2 percent; domestic crude oil production fell 600000 barrels per day to 12.4 million barrels per day last week; US fuel oil demand fell 1/3 in the past three weeks; and US refined oil supply fell 3.4 million barrels per day last week, the biggest drop on record. [Lido]

Nickel spot: April 8 SMM1# electrolytic nickel quotation 93400-95300 yuan / ton. Shanghai nickel opened low in the morning market, and soon after opening it began to recover steadily, recovering all its losses before the second trading session in the morning market. In the afternoon, news came from the Philippines that Suriname mining enterprises had decided to suspend their mining and export business, pushing the nickel price back to 95000 yuan / ton. In the spot market, due to the price all the way up, the downstream mentality has been restrained, spot discount in the afternoon has also been down. The Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2005 contract quoted flat water to rise 50 yuan / ton; when the opening price of the morning market fell, some traders rose to 100 yuan / ton, the transaction situation was relatively weak, and soon fell back to 50 yuan / ton. With the disk upward, the market supply is mostly flat quotation, the overall transaction situation is mediocre. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract rose 1600-1700 yuan / ton; this morning, the supply of low prices in the market is relatively small, most traders quoted according to 1600 yuan / ton, some traders only lowered to 1500 yuan / ton in the afternoon, the transaction situation is still on the weak side. Nickel beans, today's Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract offer 600 yuan / ton, although the supply is scarce, but the demand is also weak, so nickel beans up discount has also been down with the market price.

Stainless steel: on April 8, 304 hot rolling in Wuxi area was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, 304 / NO. 1 five feet was quoted at 11750-11950 yuan / ton, 304 2B rough edge roll price was quoted at 12100-12400 yuan / ton, the price was stable, and the state-run 304 2B trimming roll price was quoted at 12900-13300 yuan / ton, with an average price reduction of 100 yuan / ton. The day before yesterday, Qingshan cold and hot rolling sales price down 200 yuan / ton, the market hot rolling slightly fell, cold rolling, part of the agent Yongjin supply is still 12200 yuan / ton, Hongwang, Qingtuo Shangke and other sources because the market quotation is lower than the sales guidance price, the price was stable yesterday. Traders said that in the case of lower prices, downstream more wait-and-see attitude. For 10:30 SHFE SS2006 contract price 12070 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water 200-500 yuan / ton. (spot trimming = rough edges + 170 yuan / ton)

On the inventory side, Lunni stocks were 229062 tons, an increase of 456 tons over April 7.

Nickel price judgment: with the weakness of stainless steel market, its raw material prices will continue to suppress, nickel pig iron production can only cause its economy relative to other nickel raw materials decline, the support for the entire nickel price is limited. Stainless steel plants are reluctant to slash production, ostensibly supporting demand for nickel, but in this consumption, which can not be transmitted to the terminal, it is actually a chronic contusion for the nickel industry. Superimposed on the negative macro environment this year, the nickel market is still unable to see signs of improvement in the short term. This week, the Shanghai nickel range is 90000-96000 yuan / ton, and Lunni 10900-11600 US dollars / ton. Lunni closed yesterday in a small balcony, the K column broke through the 20-day EMA resistance, 5-10-20 EMA will be technical crossover, Lunni today opened at 11520 US dollars / ton, follow-up attention to whether Lunni can stand in this position.