[minutes of SMM Aluminum Internal Morning meeting] going to the library continues, what is the trend of aluminum prices in the later stage?

10.25 minutes of internal aluminum morning meeting in SMM

Disk: yesterday, the Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract opened at 13815 yuan / ton, rose 13850 yuan / ton at night, mainly to long positions, daily K line closed a small positive line; Lun aluminum opened at $1729.5 / ton, intra-day horizontal plate finishing, tail concussion downward, closed at the lowest level of $1717 / ton, mainly short positions.

Macro: (1) in September 2019, the whole country issued 219.6 billion yuan of local government bonds. Of this total, 56.6 billion yuan was issued in general bonds and 163 billion yuan in special bonds. By the end of September, the balance of local government debt in the country was 21.415 trillion yuan, which was controlled within the limit approved by the National people's Congress; (2) the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States was 212000, 215000, and the previous value was 214000, better than expected; (3) the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in October was 51.5,50.9, and the previous value was 51.1, which was better than expected. (4) the National Development and Reform Commission announced on the 24th the guiding opinions on deepening the Reform of the formation Mechanism of Coal-fired Power Generation Price, making it clear that from January 1, 2020, the linkage mechanism of coal-fired electricity price will be abolished and the current coal-fired power generation benchmarking electricity price mechanism will be changed into a market-oriented price mechanism of "benchmark price + fluctuating up and down".

Fundamentals: (1) overseas, Rusal produced 942000 tons of aluminum in the third quarter of 2019, an increase of 0.4 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Rusal produced 1.96 million tons of alumina in the third quarter of 2019, up 2.1% from a quarter earlier. According to South Korean steel and metal news, South Korean wire manufacturers are continuing to expand the use of aluminum alloy on cable wires to gradually replace traditional electrolytic copper materials. Compared with copper, although the conductivity of aluminum is slightly worse, but the price is more than three times cheaper, and the safety is relatively high; (2) inventory, SMM statistics updated the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory yesterday, due to the continued shortage of goods, electrolytic aluminum inventory fell 34000 tons to 882000 tons compared with last Thursday; (3) on the terminal, the evaluation report of aluminum used by China's automobile industry (20162030) was released recently. The report presents the results of a comprehensive assessment of the amount of aluminum used in China's automotive industry, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles (passenger cars and trucks), special vehicles, two-wheeled vehicles and tricycles. The report predicts that aluminum use by trucks and new energy vehicles will reach 1.4 million tons in 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of 11 per cent.

Spot: yesterday, the spot price in Shanghai was between 13980-14000 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Wuxi market was between 13990-14010 yuan / ton. The spot price in East China increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. The price difference between next month and the current month is less than 20 yuan / ton. The spot price in individual warehouses is 20 yuan / ton lower than the main current price. The spot price in Hangzhou is 13990-14010 yuan / ton. As a result of the VAT system upgrade, invoice related affairs stopped, the market holders issued the month's ticket goods decreased, most of them are next month's ticket goods, middlemen are still actively receiving the goods, but on the whole, the transaction between buyers and sellers is still deadlocked. Downstream on-demand goods, a small amount of stock, the overall performance is general. The overall transaction in East China was flat yesterday. This morning, the spot market transaction rose 100 yuan / ton near.

Summary: the contradiction between long and short in the short-term market still exists, although the supply increase is expected, but the actual growth rate is slow. With the recovery after the consumption holiday, the spot social inventory continues to go to the warehouse. At the present stage, the consumption can still go to the warehouse to continue to make the industry still need to give electrolytic aluminum a certain profit space, should not be too bearish, we should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption. Due to the increase in overseas alumina supply and weak demand, the internal and external positive sleeve will drag down the increased risk and can appropriately reduce the position. The monthly difference between SHFE contracts maintains a pattern of near strength and far weakness, which can be properly intervened.

(SMM Li Hao)