[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190 711: multi-space intertwined, disk concussion operation

In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed down 4 yuan / ton to close at 4017 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed down 10 yuan / ton at 3874 yuan / ton; I1909 closed down 14.5 yuan / ton at 866.5 yuan / ton; J1909 closed up 11.5 yuan / ton at 2093.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 3.81 million transactions, an increase of 61800 to 2.48 million; I1909, 2.15 million, with a decrease of 28300 to 1.38 million; in terms of capital flows, the net inflow of RB1910 funds today was 191 million yuan; and the net outflow of I1909 funds was 360 million yuan. Viewpoint: shock operation. Yesterday night, thread under the influence of negative inventory data this week, the disk plunged sharply, and then fell into a concussion pattern, but after the afternoon short digestion, the disk rose sharply, by the end of the day basically recovered the previous decline; Although inventories have accumulated this week, production is still declining, indicating that the effect of environmental protection policies is gradually showing that there is no obvious improvement in demand in the short term, and under the influence of uncertainty in the economic data to be released, the market may fluctuate, but later demand may recover after the emergence of plum in East China, and before the 70th anniversary, there is a rush expectation at the construction site, which will also be good for steel demand. It is expected that the probability of continuing upward after the short-term shock to build the relay platform is greater. Iron ore, is still in a weak concussion pattern, mainly due to Tangshan, Wu'an strong production restrictions led to the decline of iron ore daily consumption in July, weak demand, however, considering that there is still a large discount on the futures market, the space for decline is limited, the disk is still treated with concussion in the short term, and the rising market of a wave of repair discount can still be expected in the later stage. Bifocal has become the most powerful variety today. On the one hand, after the early decline, there is a need for reverse pumping. On the other hand, on the news side, there are two coal mine accidents in Queensland, Australia, and production has been suspended. There are Linfen municipal government out of Taiwan washing coal preparation enterprise renovation plan, from the current 350 seats down to 180, and required to be completed by the end of September, all of them have a certain degree of support for the disk, under the stimulus of good news, bifocal is expected to end the consolidation ahead of schedule and start the rising market. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3930, 4100); I1909 contract range (850900), middle line multiple single hold, short-term high throw low suction. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.