[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190 627: spot follow weak, black collective ride roller coaster

In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed up 3 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 4001 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed down 19 yuan / ton at 3897 yuan / ton; I1909 closed up 17. 5 yuan / ton to close at 821.5 yuan / ton; J1909 closed down 51 yuan / ton at 2054.5 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 4.99 million transactions, with positions reduced by 59100 to 2.47 million; I1909, 3.02 million, increased by 105000 to 1.71 million; in terms of capital flows, RB1910 had a net outflow of 183 million yuan today; and I1909 had a net inflow of 268 million yuan. Viewpoint: concussion arrangement. Today, RB1910 hit a new high of 4094 in the year, after the fall, out of the roller coaster market, from the data point of view, this week thread social inventory increased and steel mill inventory decreased, indicating that steel factory shipments are smooth, plant warehouse has signs of transfer to the social database. At the same time, thread production also fell again, indicating that under the implementation of environmental protection measures to limit production, supply-side shrinkage expectations began to become a reality. In the later period, there will be another 70th anniversary, and the suppression of environmental protection on supply is still worth looking forward to. At present, the factor restricting the market is that with the sharp rise in futures prices, the basis has converged, calculated at today's highest price has been close to the flat water, there is a need to fall back and adjust in the short term, and the further rise of the later futures price also needs the spot price to follow up to promote. In terms of iron ore, shipments have rebounded significantly in the last week, and the decline in port inventories has also narrowed, but futures are still deeply discounted and still have strong support for market prices. In terms of coke, today, Shandong Laigang Yongfeng also cut the purchase price of coke by 100, and the scope of the second round of raising and lowering is constantly expanding. At the same time, Hebei Tangshan steel plant blast furnace began to stop, limit production, the overall coke demand has a downward trend, for the short-term price rise has been suppressed, but with the second round of landing, downgrade cycle or come to an end, the price can stop falling and pick up. Strategy: RB1910 contract to see the range (3850, 4100); I1909 contract to look at the range (750850), more single Fenggao reduction, fall back and then pick up, rolling operation. In terms of arbitrage, we can focus on the opportunities to be profitable for steel mills. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.