[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]

On the 27th of SMM6,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: the market focused on the G20 summit on Friday, when the US merchandise trade deficit widened in May. China's State Council has called for a reduction in the real interest rate on financing for small and micro enterprises and an expansion of manufacturing credit. Focus on US GDP data today. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review: Shanghai: after the Shanghai zinc market is higher, the market is still dominated by shipment, but the single demand of trading companies is weak, at the same time, there is also a small amount of wait-and-see inquiry downstream, and the imbalance between market supply and demand intensifies. The quotation has been rapidly lowered from 10-flat water discount to 30-10 yuan / ton discount, but the transaction is extremely limited. The average price of the net is about 15 yuan / ton, and there is no price difference between the current month and the next month. The follow-up quotation is further reduced by about 10 yuan / ton, and the transaction is still flat. Some of the holders temporarily leave the market. The overall market transaction is weak, and the transaction is becoming weaker this week. Guangdong: normal shipment of refineries, the market supply of goods is more abundant. The early quotation of the holder focused on the flat water of the contract of the current month to about 10 yuan / ton, but the willingness of the market to receive the goods was not boosted, entering the second trading period, the quotation of the holder mostly focused on the increase of 200 yuan to 210 yuan / ton of 08 contract, and the market transaction was slightly improved. Yesterday more long orders expired, today more enterprises do settlement, the willingness to receive goods is not good, superimposed disk uplink, the willingness to receive goods in the market is more limited. Overall, the Guangdong market today is flat, slightly worse than yesterday. Tianjin: refinery normal shipment, the market supply is more abundant than yesterday. The holder is active in shipping, the quotation is concentrated on the 07 contract rising water 100 200 yuan / ton or so, the market is mainly inquiry and wait-and-see, the willingness to receive goods is not good, mainly because the price fell more last week, downstream every fall to make up for the warehouse more, basically to the next week or two reserve demand is overdrawn, so today's price rebound, the market is mainly wait-and-see. The overall transaction atmosphere is flat, the transaction situation is basically the same as the day before, and has not been significantly improved due to the increase in the arrival of goods. Zinc price: every other day, zinc pressure 40-day moving average, upward trial failed to stand, and then fell back to give up more than half of the day before, in 2500 US dollars / ton integer bit temporarily looking for support, the current LME inventory rose continuously, the market for the increase in supply is expected to heat up again, and the macro news turn to also promote the basic metal down, the lower multiple EMA adhesion to provide some support; Overnight Shanghai zinc pressure 20-day EMA operation, macro news turn, promote Shanghai zinc fall back finishing, superimposed the current consumer side has not significantly improved, below to the 10-day EMA support strength. Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2470 to 2520 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1908 contract or run in the vicinity of 19700-20200 yuan / ton, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc is expected to run at 2470 to 2520 US dollars per ton and 1908 yuan per ton for Shanghai Zinc. Material 0 # domestic fall 100