[SMM analysis] Tianjin zinc spot market continues to show fatigue follow-up whether it can recover?

SMM6 12 / 12 / PRNewswire-FirstCall-Asianet /-

The spot market in Tianjin has been in a state of weakness this week, with spot water falling rapidly, falling from 50 yuan per ton for June contracts on Monday to about 150 yuan per ton for June contracts on Wednesday. SMM analysis shows that the rapid decline of spot zinc in Tianjin is mainly due to the following two reasons:

First, the consumer fatigue caused by weak demand.

From the terminal point of view, the terminal demand for galvanizing is mainly in the infrastructure, real estate and automobile sectors, but the sales volume of automobile production in China has continued to grow negatively this year, while in the real estate sector, there are still differences between new construction and completion, commercial housing sales, and the expectation of galvanizing consumption to boost the year itself is relatively limited. In addition to the high expectations of the infrastructure sector, in addition to rail traffic and tower demand to maintain good, there is no effective growth direction, the terminal feedback on galvanized consumption is slightly pessimistic.

Based on the weak terminal demand, from the point of view of the galvanizing plant, in April, driven by the policy, the galvanizing plant overdrew part of the zinc consumption ahead of schedule; however, in May, the order of the galvanizing plant in North China is difficult to continue the double pressure of superimposed cost upside down, some small factories shut down and large plants take the initiative to reduce production. In June, the northern region entered the high temperature season, galvanizing plant orders will be further weakened, but the cost upside down pressure has not been effectively relieved, the overall demand for zinc consumption is not optimistic.

Second, since June, the monthly difference between Shanghai Zinc 1906 contract and 1907 contract has continued to expand, from 365yuan / ton on June 3 to 600yuan / ton on June 12. the pattern of near strength and far weakness of zinc in Shanghai has been gradually strengthened, and the sentiment of pushing out the warehouse in the future of zinc has become more and more intense. Spot traders are eager to lock in the disk profits have a strong shipping intention, after the big discount, traders in Shanghai and Guangdong actively raise delivery positions, but Tianjin market has not set up a zinc delivery warehouse, in addition to spot transactions, there is no second effective way to deal with, so the speed of expansion under the discount in Tianjin market is faster. However, for the receiver and downstream consumption, spot pricing will return to the supply side after delivery, and the supply of refined zinc in the market is not in short supply. At present, it is difficult to maintain nearly 500 yuan / ton of high water in July, and the probability will accelerate after delivery. The cost of waiting is not high, and the willingness of traders to participate is not strong.

To sum up, in a market priced by supply and demand, the terminal consumption is weak and the willingness of traders to receive goods is on the low side. There is still some room for expansion of the discount in Tianjin before delivery, and the market trading atmosphere will continue to be light.