SMM6 month 10 news: early trading colored green manure red and thin, Shanghai zinc rose more than 1%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 1%, Shanghai lead rose 0.53%, Shanghai copper rose 0.15%, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.29%, Shanghai tin fell slightly. Black overall strong, bifocal, iron ore have risen more than 1%, hot roll slightly up, thread down 0.2%.
The dollar fell four days last week, with only 75000 of non-farm payrolls reported on Friday, well below expectations and previous values, and expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates rose again. At present, the supply and demand of copper in the periphery is weak, the maintenance of domestic enterprises is gradually over, the market is facing the release of supply, the demand side is about to enter the off-season, the downstream start-up falls back to the low level, the later trade war is faced with great uncertainty, and the copper price may aggravate the fluctuation. According to SMM, the output affected by maintenance from January to May is close to 192000 tons for the whole of last year. Up to now, the capacity utilization rate of Chinalco Ningde is less than 80%. The refeeding time of Guangxi Nanguo Copper Industry has been moved back to late June, and the Chifeng Jinfeng Phase I project will not be officially fed until around 18 May. The whole new expansion project has been put into production and the time to reach production has shifted backward. The reclaimed copper smelter in operation has also experienced a decline in capacity utilization because of the narrowing of the price difference between scrap copper and refined copper. According to production schedules, production will return to 704900 tons in June due to the end of centralized maintenance in May, still down 2.43 per cent from the same period last year, and 4.2518 million tons in the first half of 2019, a cumulative decrease of 1.72 per cent.
Iron ore demand remains strong, but downstream consumption into the off-season, timber profits shrink, some steel mills have begun to stop production or announced planned maintenance. The recovery of shipping volume has been close to the normal level, but the contradiction between supply and demand accumulated for a long time still exists, and the macro global economic recession and the impact of the Sino-US trade war continue to put pressure on mine prices. The pullback in the first two weeks released some pressure, iron ore prices have a stabilizing trend, in the medium to long term, supply-side speculation will continue to support iron ore prices. On the steel side, supply-side profits have been eroded, but short-term high production will continue to be maintained, the demand side into the off-season. In the case of strong supply and weak demand, the thread trend has adjusted demand.
Crude oil rose more than 3 per cent after Saudi Arabia said OPEC was close to reaching an agreement to extend production cuts beyond June, while a deal between the US and Mexico also supported rising oil prices.
Today's forecast:
Copper: today's focus on domestic trade import and export data and social data to be released, the expected performance is not optimistic. And because the domestic market consumption gradually weakens, the supply is sufficient, it is difficult to provide the support function for the price. Due to the impact of risk aversion, the spot market is expected to remain high and market transactions will be curbed as a result. It is expected that today's copper 5780 5830 / ton, Shanghai copper 46000 / 46500 yuan / ton, spot water 120-180 yuan / ton.
Aluminum: today, it is expected that the SMM domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory will still go to the warehouse, the material day Shanghai aluminum shock run at 13900 to 14200 yuan / ton, spot to the current month rising water in 10 to 30 yuan / ton.
Lead: lead plummeted so that the market speculative bulls gave up entry, Lun lead returned to the platform shock position, the short-term is still expected to run around $1800. Trading in Shanghai opened today.
Zinc: last Friday, Lun Zinc ran independently between the 5-day and 10-day EMA, the KDJ index tended to be flat, superimposed integer suppression, and the uplink space of Lun-Zn was limited, running around $2475 / ton within a day or finishing. Due to the Dragon Boat Festival closed, Shanghai zinc no night on Friday, Shanghai zinc main 1908 contract or finishing run in the vicinity of 199000-20400 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic to 1906 contract affixed 30-liter water 10, double Yan liter water 10-liter water 60.
Tin: it is expected that Shanghai tin will maintain a low consolidation trend, the lower support around 142000 yuan / ton, the upper resistance of 144500 yuan / ton. In the spot market, the mainstream trading price is expected to remain at 142500 to 144000 yuan per ton today.
Nickel: U. S. non-farm payrolls rose by just 75000 in May, less than half of expectations, the lowest in three months, market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to a 20-month low at one point. In the last day of trading, nickel fell nearly 0.5%, and Shanghai nickel was closed. Shanghai nickel is expected to stop falling today, in the range of 95500 yuan / ton-96500 yuan / ton concussion consolidation. The price of nickel is 11550 to 11750 US dollars per ton, and the spot price is 94500 to 96500 yuan per ton. Today, attention should be paid to the manufacturing output ring in the UK in April compared with the same period last year as the industrial output ring.
