[record of SMM lead internal morning meeting on June 5]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

The Fed chairman hinted that if economic growth was lower than expected or potential inflation was lower than expected, the Fed would adopt appropriate policies, adding that if the Treasury yield curve hung upside down "for a period of time" in the future, He will take the incident "seriously" and the dollar will fall to around 97;

Factory orders in the United States grew at the slowest pace since Trump took office in April, and shipments of manufactured products fell the most since April 2017.

The Mexican president is expected to reach an agreement with the United States before the tax, but Trump said it is more likely to tax next week. The head of the Mexican Agricultural Chamber of Commerce said Mexico could retaliate against US agricultural products. U. S. Republican lawmakers have warned that they are ready to vote against the presidential decree.

The RBA cut interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the lowest level in history and in line with market expectations, with the RBA chairman saying future interest rates could be cut further. At the beginning of last month, the New Zealand Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%, the first developed country to cut interest rates.

Eurozone CPI fell below expectations in May to its lowest level in more than a year.

Fundamentals:

The lead in Shanghai fell again, while the maintenance of the original lead refinery increased, and the shipowners pushed up the price and partially raised the quotation by 10 to 20 yuan per tonne. Among them, the southern lead in the Shanghai market quoted 80 to 100 yuan per ton of water for the 1906 contract. Jinsha lead quoted for 1907 contract water 200 yuan / ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Wanyang lead to 1906 contract water 70 to 80 yuan / ton, while the original lead refinery bulk single mainstream quotation for SMM1# lead average price to 30 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, the trading volume of recycled refined lead market continues to be light. The mainstream quotation of recycled refined lead is 50 yuan / ton to the average price of SMM1# lead per ton to the flat water factory, and some areas even have the quotation of 100 yuan / ton of tax recycled refined lead to SMM1# lead sticker. Downstream battery market demand is not prosperous, storage enterprises on the future market is not optimistic, cautious wait-and-see, scattered single market transaction activity is general.

Lead price:

The Lun lead positive line closes, the high level touches the low platform box top, the short-term wants to break through effectively needs to put up the quantity, if holds not to put up the quantity, needs to carefully Lun lead to give up the increase; It is not difficult to find that the trend of lead in Shanghai is far weaker than that of lead, if the rise in the day, the need for short high positions to crack down;

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to rise by 50 to 75 yuan per ton today.