Macro Roundup (Sep 3)

SHANGHAI, Sep 3 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected today.

Last weekend

The US dollar registered a second consecutive trading day of growth last Friday as investors sought safe harbour from the US currency after it was reported that the US and Canada ended trade negotiations without any agreement. The greenback is on track to end the month of August on a positive note, up about 0.6% amid trade tensions. It has advanced in four of the last five months, gaining nearly 9%.

Base metals traded with pressure as LME nickel slumped 3.8%, copper lost 1.4%, tin fell 0.84%, and aluminium closed 0.47% lower. SHFE nickel plunged over 3.2%, copper slid nearly 1%, tin and aluminium dipped. Other base metals edged up. 

China’s manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) beat expectations and July’s reading to stand at 51.3 for August. 

The rise in August ended two consecutive months of decline, indicating that short-term downward pressure on the economy has slowed down, said Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Canter of the State Council, a government think tank. Some key things that should be noted are the decline in import and export related index, and the impact of trade disputes, according to Zhang. 

Growth of retail sales in Germany eased more than expected in July, figures from Destatis showed Friday. Retail sales rose 0.8% year-on-year in July, slower than the 2.7% increase in June. Sales were expected to grow 1.3%. 

Eurozone August preliminary consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.0% on a yearly basis, compared with an expected growth of 2.1%. Meanwhile, the core figures eased to 1% in the reported month, when compared to the expected 1.1% and previous 1.1%.

In the US, the PMI for Chicago came in better-than-expected, up to 63.6. The August Michigan consumer sentiment index of 96.2 beat expectations but remained the lowest of the year. The survey’s current conditions sub-index of consumer expectations dropped to 110.3 from July’s reading of 114.4.

Day ahead

The market should monitor key data such as China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for August, as well as the August Markit manufacturing PMI for the eurozone and Germany.