Macro Roundup (Apr 3)

SHANGHAI, Apr 3 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar index rebounded to 90 following the release of upbeat economic data.

SHFE metals saw mixed trading overnight with aluminium rising over 1%. Copper and tin inched up, while others edged down slightly.

China’s Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for March fell short of expectations and stood at a four-month low of 51.0. This signalled a modest slowdown in manufacturing growth.

The final US Markit manufacturing PMI registered a new high since March 2015 and came in at 55.6, compared to the expected 55.7 and February’s 55.3. This positive momentum may carry over to the second quarter if non-farm data performs well. The recent tariffs have exerted pressure on inflation and have grown inventories for next several months.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI eased to 59.3 in March from 60.8 in February. The prices index hit a new high since April 2011 and stood at 78.1, compared to 74.2 in February. Theindex for new orders fell to a new low since August 2017 and stood at 61.9, compared to February’s 64.2. Employment registered at 57.3, slightly below February’s 59.7. This reflected difficulty among factories to meet high demand given rising costs of raw materials.

US construction spending edged up 0.1% in February after it remained flat in January. However, it failed to meet the expected 0.4% as spending on public construction projects tumbled 2.1%, the largest drop since June 2017, and as spending on federal government construction projects plunged 11.9%, the biggest decline since October 2004. Construction spending is expected to affect the US' economic growth for the second quarter.

Day ahead

The eurozone’s Markit manufacturing PMIs for March are key factors to watch today.

The US dollar is seen testing support at 90 in the short term, while base metals are likely to continue to see mixed trading today.

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