SHANGHAI, Mar 23 (SMM) – Pressure on aluminium prices will emerge if China’s inventory grew over 2.4 million mt, according to SMM senior analyst Liu Xiaolei. He added that a turning point for the increasing inventory is likely to appear in late March based on a rather positive outlook on downstream demand.
According to an SMM survey, China’s aluminium inventory saw a first dip this week to 2.28 million mt since the start of February.
However, Liu said that new aluminium capacity in 2018, as well as production recovery, will also give pressure to the market. Only when consumption exceeds expectation would an obvious destocking appear, he told delegates at the SMM Copper Aluminium Summit in Shanghai on Friday March 23.
SMM expects to see 4.01 million mt of new capacity in aluminium this year. By the end of 2020, China would have over 50 million mt of refined aluminium capacity.
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