Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-6-26)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 26 (SMM) – US May durable goods orders, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), Dallas Fed Business Activity Index and Germany IFO Business Climate Index, Business Situation Index and expectation index will be released today. SHFE lead edged down further last Friday, but other base metals mostly surged before falling. Base metals are expected to diverge today.

US May durable goods orders may fall further. The data have been falling for 3 months in a raw. Meanwhile, Markit June manufacturing PMI for the US also fell for 5 months on end, with new order index of 51.6, the lowest from last September. This means US manufacturing appeared to have weakened, and will weigh down the US dollar.

SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jun. 26, 2017)

The complete proposal as to immigration problem in the EU will be eyed. UK prime minister Theresa May said millions of EU residents will not be repelled after Brexit. This may help ease concerns over a “hard Brexit”. The pound is expected to rise and weigh down the US dollar.

European Central Bank (ECB) President’s statement will also be eyed. The bank left interest rate unchanged at June meeting due mainly to low inflation. But Bundesbank President reckoned that it may be the time for the ECB to end QE. The market will watch whether Mario Draghi will change his attitude.