[Cu Price] Dim Trade Outlook Bodes Ill for Copper Price, SMM Interview

SHANGHAI, Jul. 13 (SMM) – China’s trade data for June released early today are better than expected, with import decline narrowing and exports shifting to positive growth. However, futures analysts worry that poor outlook for foreign trade may still weigh on copper prices.

China’s Export Leading Indicator fell 0.2 to 34.8 in June, presaging strong downbeat exports in the three months ahead.

“June’s trade data, though improving from May, were still considered weak, and the falling imports are reflection of sluggish demand in China, so copper prices are unlikely to gain much impetus,” analyst from First Futures told SMM.

Customs also reported that China’s unwrought copper and copper semis imports dropped on the month in June to 350,000 tonnes, and H1 import volumes fell by 11% on the year.

“The weak copper imports will curb the rebound in copper prices,” analyst of CITIC Futures said in an interview.

Analyst of Guosen Futures said the trade data for the first half of the year were actually weak and outlook, especially for exports, in the latter half of the year is poor. However, the analyst added that China’s copper imports are not expected to recover soon, and limited inflow of import goods may allow price in China to hold firmer than that overseas.

September-delivery copper on Shanghai Futures Exchange posted a 590 yuan fall for daytime trading today to end at 40,130 yuan per tonne.

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