[SMM Analysis] Lithium Carbonate Prices Under Pressure, Downstream Dip-Buying Active

Today, SMM’s battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price fluctuated downward compared to the previous trading day. In the futures market, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened higher at 172,000 yuan/mt, quickly surged to 172,500 yuan/mt after opening, and then fluctuated downward, falling below the 165,700 yuan/mt average price line in early trading. Around midday, it accelerated its decline to an intraday low of 160,100 yuan/mt (a drop of over 6.5%). In the afternoon, it hovered at lows, struggling to rebound, weakened again near the close, and ultimately settled down 6.58% at 160,500 yuan/mt, with open interest decreasing by 4,883 lots.

In the spot market, as lithium carbonate prices fluctuated downward, downstream material plants showed strong dip-buying interest, leading to active market inquiries and actual transactions. Upstream lithium chemical plants still held their offer prices relatively firm, with some enterprises shipping via post-pricing models. Lithium carbonate production increased slightly this week, mainly due to the gradual production resumptions of spodumene-side maintenance lines, while the recycling side and salt lake side maintained stable production. Lepidolite-side output saw minor fluctuations due to raw material supply issues. Looking at actual transactions and inventory situations, as prices continued to fluctuate downward, upstream lithium chemical plants were reluctant to sell spot orders. Only some enterprises that had previously hedged at high prices managed to secure small spot transactions with downstream firms or traders; most lithium chemical plants primarily held prices firm and held back from selling. However, with the concentrated delivery of early-month long-term contracts, along with some resumed production lines not yet reaching full capacity, lithium chemical plant inventories saw modest destocking this week. Downstream material plants, with early-month long-term contracts and customer supplies gradually arriving, combined with dip-buying of spot orders, led to an inventory buildup state this week. Traders, purchasing as needed along with downstream demand, showed a destocking pattern.