Metals: Domestic Market Outperforms Overseas Market; SHFE Tin, SHFE Zinc, and Alumina Rose Over 1%; SHFE Silver Rose Nearly 2%; LME Tin and Palladium Led Declines [SMM Midday Review]

SMM News, May 29:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.86%, SHFE aluminum up 0.19%, SHFE lead down 0.45%, SHFE zinc up 1.05%, SHFE tin up 1.31%, and SHFE nickel edged down.

In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures edged up, the most-traded alumina contract was up 1.08%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract up 0.9%, the most-traded silicon metal contract up 0.12%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract up 0.45%.

Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.77%, rebar up 0.38%, hot-rolled coil up 0.47%, and stainless steel down 0.57%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal edged up, and the most-traded coke contract was up 0.42%.

Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper was down 0.41%, LME aluminum down 0.68%, LME lead down 0.12%, LME zinc up 0.18%, LME tin down 1.61%, and LME nickel down 0.52%.

Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold was down 0.1% and COMEX silver down 0.26%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 1.59% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract up 1.86%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract was up 0.89% and the most-traded palladium futures contract down 1.45%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight contract was up 0.62%, closing at 3,016 points.

As of 11:41 on May 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:

Spot cargo and fundamentals

Aluminum:On May 29, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,060, up 50, at a discount of 225 to the current-month contract, narrowing by 5. Futures edged up today, and spot cargo in South China was generally stable with slight fall. Absolute prices remained at relatively low levels and inventory saw significant drawdowns. In the morning, most holders continued to hold prices firm for shipments...

Macro front

China:

[CCPIT: Global Trade Friction Index Remained at High Level in March]This morning (May 29), the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held a press conference to release the latest Global Trade Friction Index. Data showed that in March this year, the global trade friction index remained at a high level. Composite index, the global trade friction index stood at 104 in March 2026, remaining at a high level. The value of trade involved in global trade friction measures fell 29.1% YoY but rose 2.8% MoM. Country-specific indices, among the 20 countries (regions) monitored, the top 3 were the US, India, and the EU. The US accounted for the largest amount involved in global trade friction measures, ranking first in 11 out of the past 12 months. Wang Yifei, spokesperson of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), stated that in terms of industry indices, among the 13 major industries within the monitoring scope, trade friction measures were concentrated in the electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, and machinery equipment industries, with the electronics industry ranking first in the trade friction index. (CCTV News)

[PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Recorded a Net Withdrawal of 30 Billion Yuan for the Day and a Net Injection of 104.4 Billion Yuan for the Week]The PBOC conducted 123 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 30 billion yuan was achieved for the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 908.9 billion yuan of reverse repo operations. As a total of 500 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 304.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, a net injection of 104.4 billion yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data APP)(Jin10 Data APP)

US Dollar:

As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.1. Fed's Musalem said on Thursday that, like several other Fed policymakers, he believed the "easing bias" language should have been removed from the post-meeting statement last month, thereby creating the possibility of an interest rate hike. "I supported the rate decision, but I believe the easing bias no longer aligns with the economic outlook and the balance of risks," Musalem said. Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, said the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of further policy tightening by the US Fed. In her report, Uruci noted that since early May, the Iran conflict has lasted longer than expected, oil prices have risen, and US economic growth has remained resilient. While the US Fed can look through a temporary energy shock, sustained oil and import price pressures could affect inflation expectations, wage dynamics, and enterprise pricing behavior. Uruci shifted her base case to the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months. She assigned a 45% probability to rates staying unchanged, a 35% probability of a rate hike by year-end or early 2027, and a 20% probability of an interest rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.4%, with a 0.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 93%, with a 6.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data APP)

A series of economic data confirmed market concerns about US inflation, while economic activity sent mixed signals. US durable goods orders rose 7.9% in April, easily surpassing the Wall Street Journal's market consensus expectations of 3.5%; however, this figure was largely driven by a surge in non-defense aircraft equipment orders. The second estimate of Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down from 2% to 1.6%. Weekly initial jobless claims rose more than expected, increasing from an upwardly revised 210,000 to 215,000, suggesting an acceleration in the pace of enterprise layoffs. PCE inflation accelerated as expected, rising from 3.5% to 3.8%. (Jin10 Data APP)

Data:

Today will see the release of France's preliminary May CPI m/m, France's final Q1 GDP y/y, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment change, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment rate, Germany's preliminary May CPI m/m, Canada's March GDP m/m, and the US May Chicago PMI, among other data.

In addition, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participating in a fireside chat at a conference hosted by Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in an exchange event at Korea University; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen delivering a speech on the economic outlook.

Crude oil:

As of 11:41, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 1.26% and Brent down 0.85%. The market expected a possible US-Iran ceasefire extension agreement, putting oil prices under pressure. Meanwhile, the back-and-forth nature of bilateral agreement negotiations also led to heightened volatility in oil prices.

The US and Iran are nearing a historic 60-day ceasefire and maritime corridor unblocking agreement, but contradictory statements from senior officials on both sides indicate that core disagreements over Iran's nuclear plan and control of the Strait of Hormuz persist, leaving significant uncertainty over whether a final deal can be reached. According to Xinhua News Agency, US officials stated that US-Iran negotiators had largely reached agreement on the terms of a memorandum of understanding on the 26th, pending approval from senior leadership on both sides. The Iranian side stated it had obtained the necessary approval and was ready to sign. US negotiators briefed Trump on the details of the memorandum of understanding. "The President told the mediators that he would like to take a few days to consider the matter." Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, the Iranian side stated that as of now, Iran has not agreed to any memorandum of understanding, nor has it confirmed to Pakistani mediators that it has approved the memorandum. In addition, Iran explicitly stated that it had not made any commitments on the nuclear issue during negotiations with the US. (Wallstreetcn)

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Oil prices will be lower than pre-conflict levels. Nearly 2,000 ships are waiting for port departures in the Gulf, and supply on the other end of the oil market will be very ample. (Jin10 Data APP)

South Korean government officials said on the 28th that the South Korean government decided to ease mandatory oil reserve requirements for private enterprises starting from the 29th to release private oil reserves to the market. The country has not yet decided when to release national oil reserves, keeping them as a "last card" to deal with potential oil crises. Yang Ki-wook, an official from South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, announced on the same day that starting from the 29th, the government will reduce the mandatory oil reserve requirement for private oil companies from 40 days to 20 days, releasing oil reserves equivalent to 20 days of consumption. He stated that this measure was to fulfill commitments made to the International Energy Agency. (Jin10 Data APP)

Spot market overview:

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