Rare Earth Export Prices Saw Slight Correction This Week as Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Restructuring Accelerated [SMM Rare Earth Ex-China Weekly Review]

Published: May 22, 2026 17:07
The ex-China rare earth market this week exhibited a trend of "falling prices amid tight supply," with Pr-Nd oxide and metal prices generally marked down by approximately $5-10/kg. However, due to export controls and tightening supply, the premium on Chinese products outside China remained significant. Meanwhile, geopolitical rivalry and supply chain restructuring accelerated, with G7 finance ministers calling for urgent reduction of dependence on China and the establishment of recycling quota systems. On the capital front, Greenland Resources spent $35 million to acquire the high-grade Sarfartoq project to strengthen its magnetic material rare earth portfolio. Australia's Arafura officially finalised the final investment decision for the Nolans project. Combined with Brazil's launch of an antitrust investigation and Germany's Heraeus divesting its recycling business, these developments underscored the urgency of global decoupling and localization efforts.

Markets Outside China

Prices:

Rare earth oxides:

Cerium oxide FOB closed at $2,094-2,178/mt, remaining stable for now. Cerium oxide CIF (Rotterdam) closed at $2,827-2,837/mt, remaining stable for now. Lanthanum oxide FOB closed at $1,008-1,068/mt, remaining stable for now. Praseodymium oxide FOB closed at $120-124/kg, down $10/mt. Neodymium oxide FOB closed at $155-187/kg, down $10/mt. Neodymium oxide CIF (Rotterdam) closed at $235-255/kg, down $10/mt. Dysprosium oxide FOB closed at $254-308/kg, down $5/mt. Terbium oxide FOB closed at $1,087-1,175/kg, down $5/kg.

Rare earth metals:

Praseodymium metal FOB closed at $156-164/kg, down $10/kg. Neodymium metal FOB closed at $145-165/kg, down $10/kg. Terbium metal FOB closed at $1,366-1,446/kg, down $5/mt. Yttrium metal FOB closed at $33-38/kg. Lanthanum metal FOB closed at $3-3.1/kg, remaining stable overall.

Trading:Affected by price cuts in China, Pr-Nd prices in markets outside China pulled back slightly this week, but export prices for oxides and metals carried a notable premium. On the trading front, Pr-Nd supply remained tight, and export control policies on heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium were still in effect, with exports staying at low levels.

Weekly News Recap

1. Greenland and North American Project Developments

Nasdaq-listed Greenland Mines (GRML) announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire Neo North Star Resources from shareholders including Neo Performance Materials, thereby obtaining the Sarfartoq rare earth project in southwestern Greenland. The total transaction consideration was $35 million, paid in $20 million cash plus $15 million in company shares. Sarfartoq is a carbonatite-type rare earth deposit rich in neodymium and praseodymium used in EV and national defense magnetic materials. Its historical resource estimate (compliant with NI 43-101) indicated that combined Pr-Nd oxide accounted for 25%-40% of total rare earth oxides, among the highest ratios globally. The ST1 ore body alone contained approximately 27 million kg of neodymium oxide and 8 million kg of praseodymium oxide. Neo Performance Materials will retain its GRML equity stake and secure offtake rights to 60% of future ore or concentrates from the project. This move adds a world-class magnetic material rare earth asset to GRML's existing Skaergaard palladium-gold-platinum project.

Additionally, US rare earth producer REalloys and Critical Metals (CRML) signed a binding 15-year offtake agreement to purchase 15% of monthly production from Phase 1 of the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland. Tanbreez is one of the world's largest heavy rare earth deposits, containing substantial dysprosium and terbium. Phase 1 has a designed capacity of 15,000 mt/year of rare earth concentrates, with pricing based on a market reference formula with minimum price protection.

2. G7 Policy Developments

German Finance Minister Lindner stated at the G7 finance ministers' meeting in Paris that the G7 must accelerate efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese critical minerals and rare earths, saying "time is pressing and cannot wait." He proposed improving procurement strategies, expanding domestic production, and suggested establishing recycling quota systems for critical raw materials. Lindner cited dependence on fossil fuels and Russian gas as a warning against falling into new supply chain dependency traps.

3. Latin American Developments

Brazil's Geological Survey (SGB) was conducting rare earth potential assessments and fieldwork across multiple areas in São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina states, including Itupeva and Jacupiranga. Meanwhile, Brazil's antitrust regulator Cade announced an investigation into US Rare Earths (USAR)'s proposed $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde, Brazil's only active rare earth producer, to assess market concentration risks. Cade emphasized that the investigation did not confirm competition concerns and may ultimately result in case closure, unconditional approval, or initiation of an administrative review.

4. Australia and Capital Movements

The Australian government ordered the largest shareholder of rare earth enterprise Northern Minerals to divest its stake, marking the second intervention in two years on national security grounds targeting Chinese-linked investments. At the corporate level, Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart, through her Hancock Prospecting, spent $31 million to acquire a 6% stake in US-listed Rare Earths Americas, which is developing three rare earth projects in the US and Brazil. Rinehart also holds significant equity in MP Materials (which received US Department of Defense funding), Lynas Rare Earths, and other companies, with her total investments in the rare earth sector now reaching considerable scale.

5. Project Financing and Construction

Australia's Arafura Resources announced a Final Investment Decision (FID) for its 4,870 mt/year Nolans rare earth project. Construction is set to commence in September for a 30-month build period, with production expected to begin in early 2029. Nolans has a designed capacity of 4,440 mt/year of Pr-Nd oxide and 470 mt/year of mixed medium-heavy rare earth oxides, with a mine life of 38 years, and is expected to meet 4% of global Pr-Nd demand. The project recently secured A$200 million (approximately $144 million) in unsecured convertible notes from Australia's National Reconstruction Fund Corporation (NRFC), bringing total financing to $911 million. The company has locked in offtake contracts for 3,570 mt/year of Pr-Nd oxide (80.4% of capacity), with remaining capacity to be sold through the spot market. Offtakers include Hyundai Motor, Siemens, and Traxys.

6. Recycling and Industry Chain Integration

Germany's Heraeus agreed to sell its rare earth magnet recycling division, Heraeus Remloy, to Canada's Mkango Resources. The division, located in Bitterfeld, produces 600 mt/year of NdFeB magnetic powder (expandable to 1,200 mt/year), with products used to manufacture new permanent magnets. The transaction is expected to close in summer 2026, subject to regulatory approval.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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