Metals Show Mixed Performance, LME Nickel Up Over 1%, LME Copper, LME Tin, and SHFE Tin Down Over 1%, Gold and Silver Continue to Pull Back [Overnight Market]

SMM May 20 News:

Metals market:

Overnight base metals on domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.21% increase, while LME aluminum, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE nickel all rose less than 1%. LME tin fell 2.06%, LME copper 1.2%, SHFE tin dropped 1.35%, and other metals declined less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 0.11%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract rose 0.24%.

Overnight ferrous metals collectively rose. Stainless steel gained 0.38%, iron ore rose 0.25%, rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose around 0.03%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.04% and coke gained 0.11%.

Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.59%, and COMEX silver dropped 4.49%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.11% to 989.5 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver dropped 3.44%.

Overnight closing prices as of 6:47 AM on May 20:

Macro Front

On the evening of May 19, Russian President Putin arrived in Beijing by special aircraft. At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Russian President Putin paid a state visit to China from May 19 to 20. (CCTV News)

China:

[National Energy Administration: Total Electricity Consumption in April 2026 Up 6.0% YoY]On May 19, the National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for April. In April, total electricity consumption reached 820.5 billion kWh, up 6.0% YoY. By sector, the primary industry consumed 11.2 billion kWh, up 2.0% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 558.4 billion kWh, up 5.3% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 553.8 billion kWh, up 5.5% YoY, and high-tech equipment manufacturing consumed 105 billion kWh, up 10.1% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 151.7 billion kWh, up 8.9% YoY; of which, EV charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 13.7 billion and 8.2 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 61.9% and 42.8%. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 99.2 billion kWh, up 6.0% YoY. (National Energy Administration) (Jin10 Data APP)

US dollar:

As of overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.31. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson stated that the current interest rate level is appropriate given persistently elevated price pressures, and is exerting downward pressure on inflation. However, it is "healthy" for investors to begin considering scenarios where rate hikes may be needed. "Monetary policy is mildly restrictive, and that restrictiveness is helping to contain the impact of tariffs and price increases triggered by the Middle East conflict. Taking all of these... factors into account, I believe the current monetary policy stance is appropriate," Paulson said in remarks prepared for an Atlanta Fed conference. (Wallstreetcn)

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (2026 FOMC voting member): She is inclined to keep rates steady and has set sustained progress on disinflation as a precondition for cutting interest rates. The labour market remains stable, but inflation is still too high. An interest rate cut will only become appropriate when sustained progress on reducing inflation is observed. The US Fed's future policy path largely depends on how long the war's disruption to oil and other commodity supplies persists. If the conflict is resolved quickly, inflation and inflation risks could dissipate relatively rapidly. (Wallstreetcn)

A Huatai Securities research report stated that it is indeed difficult for the US Fed to cut interest rates again in H2 this year, and based on current trends, rate hikes may be necessary next year. Huatai Securities' latest base case assumption is that the US Fed will keep the policy rate unchanged this year, but guidance will be more hawkish than before. The neutral forecast for next year is two rate hikes, above current market expectations, primarily based on a relatively optimistic base case assumption for nominal growth. However, this forecast still faces considerable uncertainties including US economic fundamentals, geopolitical changes, and global growth. (Jin10 Data APP)

According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 84.4%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 14.8% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike. (Jin10 Data APP)

Data:

Today will see the release of China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, UK April CPI MoM, UK April Retail Price Index MoM, Germany April PPI MoM, Eurozone April CPI YoY final, and Eurozone April CPI MoM final.

In addition, SpaceX's Starship V3 will attempt its maiden flight, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will deliver a speech, and Fed Governor Barr will also speak.

Crude oil:

As of overnight close, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 0.34% and Brent down 1.05%. Earlier, US Vice President Vance said significant progress had been made in US-Iran negotiations, somewhat easing market concerns about crude oil supply. Notably, the NYMEX WTI crude oil June futures contract, affected by contract rollover, completed its last pit trading at 2:30 AM on May 20 and last electronic trading at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to exchange expiration and rollover announcements to manage risk. Additionally, some trading platforms typically expire WTI contracts one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule, so please take note.

Citigroup maintained its consistent view that the current crude oil market clearly underestimates the duration of geopolitical risks and potential tail risks. Brent crude prices are expected to surge to $120/barrel in the near term. Under a bullish scenario (with multiple pathways that could trigger it), Brent crude could reach as high as $150/barrel. Citi's forecast for 2026 global crude oil demand growth is -600,000 bpd (-0.6 mb/d), with YoY declines in Q2, Q3, and Q4 estimated at -2.4 million bpd, -800,000 bpd, and -300,000 bpd respectively. (Wallstreetcn)

American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory was -9.11 million barrels, compared with -2.188 million barrels the previous week. Last week, API Cushing crude oil inventory was -1.428 million barrels (previous: -1.755 million barrels). Last week, API gasoline inventory was -5.795 million barrels (previous: +502,000 barrels), and distillate inventory was -1.047 million barrels (previous: -319,000 barrels). (Wallstreetcn)

Bloomberg reported, citing a senior NATO official, that NATO is discussing the possibility of assisting commercial vessels through the blocked Strait of Hormuz if it remains closed by early July. According to a diplomat from a NATO member state, the proposal has received support from several NATO members but has not yet achieved the unanimous consent required for approval. A coalition led by France and the UK is developing a plan to secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as frontline hostilities ease. (Wallstreetcn)