US Inflation Heated Up, Crude Oil Continued to Rise, Metals Generally Fell, LME Copper Rose for Three Consecutive Days, Coking Coal and Coke, LME Tin and LME Nickel Led Declines [Overnight Market]

SMM News, May 13:

Metals market:

Overnight, domestic market base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper rose 0.93%. SHFE aluminum edged down, SHFE lead fell 0.39%. SHFE zinc rose 1%. SHFE tin fell 0.96%. SHFE nickel fell 0.88%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.35%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.21%.

Overnight, ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.24%, stainless steel fell 0.63%, rebar fell 0.67%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.52%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 3.26%, coke fell 2.01%.

Overnight, overseas market metals showed mixed performance. LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper extended its rally from the previous two trading days, rising 1.15%. LME aluminum fell 0.2%, LME lead rose 0.45%. LME zinc rose 1.45%. LME tin fell 1.22%. LME nickel fell 1.71%.

Overnight precious metals:COMEX gold fell 0.13%, COMEX silver rose 1.46%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.86%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 0.27%.

As of 7:18 AM on May 13, overnight closing prices:

Macro Front

China:

[SASAC: Strengthen Original and Independent Innovation, Focus on National Strategic Needs, and Win the Battle for Industrial Upgrading]The Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council held a special meeting to review the preparation of the "15th Five-Year" Development Plan Outline for Central State-Owned Enterprises. The meeting emphasized the need to win the battle for innovation leadership by strengthening original and independent innovation, focusing on national strategic needs, achieving a batch of original, disruptive, and leading scientific and technological achievements, deepening the integration of scientific and technological innovation with industrial innovation, building and utilizing more pilot-scale verification platforms with high quality, and upgrading innovation consortia. To win the battle for industrial upgrading, the meeting called for focusing on enhancing core functions and improving core competitiveness, driving an overall leap in the industrial system of central state-owned enterprises, simultaneously promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the cultivation of emerging pillar industries, improving international business planning, and better guiding central state-owned enterprises to seize opportunities from the restructuring of global industry chains and value chains. To win the battle for reform empowerment, the meeting stressed coordinating with the further deepening of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprise reforms, strengthening penetrative supervision, promoting the streamlining and strengthening of large central state-owned enterprises, and improving enterprise operational quality and efficiency.

[NDRC Price, Cost and Certification Center Conducted Virtual Power Plant Survey in Zhejiang Province]From April 27 to 30, Cheng Gang, Deputy Director of the NDRC Price, Cost and Certification Center, led a team to Zhejiang Province to conduct a survey on virtual power plants. The survey team conducted an on-site visit to China Mobile Communications Group Zhejiang Co., Ltd., toured the Energy Smart Brain platform, and held in-depth discussions on the application scenarios of virtual power plants built on communication networks. The survey team also exchanged views with the College of Electrical Engineering and the College of Control Science and Engineering at Zhejiang University on the technical and economic aspects of virtual power plants participating in power system regulation, and both sides will jointly carry out in-depth research in the future. Relevant staff from the New Energy Price and Cost Division participated in the survey. (NDRC Price, Cost and Certification Center) (Jin10 Data)

US Dollar:

The US dollar index rose 0.36% overnight, closing at 98.29. According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday, the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% YoY, above market expectations of 3.7% and hitting the highest level since May 2023. The MoM increase was 0.6%, in line with expectations but pulling back from the prior reading of 0.9%. Rising gasoline prices driven by the Iran war were the primary driver of the acceleration in inflation. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 2.8% YoY, exceeding expectations of 2.7% and reaching the highest level since September 2025; core CPI rose 0.4% MoM, also above expectations of 0.3% and the prior reading of 0.2%. Market bets on the US Fed's policy path shifted accordingly. According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets are now pricing in a probability of over 30% for a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, a sharp jump from 21.5% the previous trading day. (Wallstreetcn)

The US Senate on the 12th confirmed Kevin Warsh as a governor of the Federal Reserve Board by a vote of 51 to 45, with a 14-year term. Warsh replaces Stephen Miran, whose term has already expired, and his governor term is calculated from February 1 this year. The Senate has initiated the confirmation process for Warsh's simultaneous appointment as Fed Chairman for a four-year term and held a so-called "cloture vote," starting a countdown that could see his leadership role approved as early as local time Wednesday. Current Chairman Powell's term will end on Friday. (Jin10 Data)

On the macro front:

Data to be released today include France's Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France's April CPI monthly rate final reading, eurozone Q1 GDP annual rate revised reading, eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment quarterly rate final reading, eurozone March industrial output monthly rate, US April PPI annual rate, and US April PPI monthly rate.

In addition, attention should also be paid to: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participating in a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; Vice Premier He Lifeng leading a delegation to South Korea from May 12 to 13 for trade consultations with the US side; and US President Trump making a state visit to China.

Crude oil:

Overnight, both oil futures extended the previous trading day's rally, with WTI rising 4.06% and Brent rising 3.34%, directly reflecting the market's deepening concerns over a prolonged Iran war.

Wall Street CN noted that, according to CCTV News, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated explicitly that ending hostilities and lifting the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz are preconditions for any negotiations with the US, accusing the US of demanding Iran's "complete surrender" rather than genuine dialogue.

Bloomberg analysts Dina Esfandiary and Becca Wasser pointed out that the gap between the US and Iran remains too wide to reach a deal. If neither side is willing to compromise, lasting peace will remain elusive, and intermittent escalation and a protracted conflict will be the most likely scenario.

Investors began assessing the sustained disruption to crude oil supply caused by a prolonged conflict. The spot Brent crude oil term structure showed a notable near-end premium, with the market repricing concerns over tight short-term supply. (Wall Street CN)