[SMM Analysis] Futures Strengthening Unable to Offset Arrival Pressure, Stainless Steel Social Inventory Stops Falling and Rebounds

[SMM Analysis: Futures Strength Fails to Offset Arrival Pressure, Stainless Steel Social Inventory Stops Falling and Rebounds] On May 7, SMM reported that stainless steel social inventory stopped falling and rebounded this week, ending the previous continuous destocking trend and shifting to a slight inventory buildup. Total inventory across the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan edged up, rising from 945,900 mt on April 30, 2026 to 955,200 mt on May 7, up 0.98% WoW, showing a phased inventory buildup pattern. This week was the first week after the Labour Day holiday. The market gradually resumed normal trading. Driven by further strengthening of SS futures, stainless steel spot prices rose in tandem. The downstream mentality of "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" became prominent. Post-holiday stainless steel spot market trading volume warmed up notably, easing inventory buildup pressure to some extent. However, the core influencing factor lay on the supply side. Current stainless steel mill profitability remained favorable, and the production schedule pace stayed high. Recent steel mill arrivals were relatively concentrated, effectively alleviating the shortage of certain specifications that previously existed in the market. Arrivals exceeding trading volume became the dominant driver pushing stainless steel social inventory to stop falling and rebound this week. Overall, although SS futures strength drove a trading recovery this week, partially offsetting some inventory pressure, the concentrated release of arrivals still dominated the inventory trend. The current high production schedule pattern at steel mills remained unchanged, and subsequent arrival pressure persists. The sustainability of the downstream trading recovery still needs to be observed. In the short term, inventory is expected to maintain slight fluctuations, and subsequent focus should be on the direction of SS futures and the pace of steel mill arrivals...