SMM, April 30:
In April 2026, China's secondary lead production showed a pattern of MoM rebound and YoY decline. Monthly secondary lead production was up 12.72% MoM and down 24.61% YoY; secondary refined lead production was up 8.7% MoM and down 33.14% YoY significantly.
The production growth in April was primarily driven by incremental output from smelters that resumed production and continued to ramp up production. Secondary lead smelters in east China, northwest China, central China and other regions successively resumed production from mid-to-late March and entered the capacity ramp-up stage in April, with production loads steadily increasing, driving overall production to rise. Meanwhile, some enterprises in the industry opted to reduce loads and cut production, mainly due to tight scrap battery raw material supply, high smelting costs, and weak lead prices exacerbating losses, compounded by mediocre end-use consumption, which constrained smelters' willingness to produce. However, overall, the incremental output from production resumptions offset the reduction, and April production still achieved MoM growth.
Entering May, secondary lead production is expected to turn downward, with monthly production expected to decline by over 30,000 mt. Supply-side pressure comes from two aspects: first, multiple large secondary lead smelters in east China and north China are entering routine maintenance cycles, leading to phased capacity contraction; second, smelters in most regions have weak expectations for scrap battery raw material arrivals in May, with insufficient confidence in restocking, and proactively plan to cut production and reduce loads. Although a few smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui are resuming or commencing production, bringing minor capacity supplements, this is insufficient to offset the reductions from maintenance in major producing areas and tight raw materials. Secondary lead production in May is expected to show a notable pullback overall.
![Lead Prices Edged Up Before Pulling Back Under Pressure, Fluctuating Downward Below the Daily Average Line in the Afternoon Session [Brief Comment on Lead Futures]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/lIHfM20251217171721.jpeg)
