Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Apr 30)

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

Social inventory of HRC was 3.0182 million mt this week, down 151,200 mt from the previous week (-4.77% WoW, +41.59% YoY, +17.81% YoY on a lunar calendar basis). Mill inventory of HRC was 1.0153 million mt this week, down 1,500 mt from the previous week (-0.15% WoW, -7.28% YoY, -8.64% YoY on a lunar calendar basis). Total HRC inventory was 4.0335 million mt this week, down 152,700 mt from the previous week (-3.65% WoW, +25.00% YoY, +9.81% YoY on a lunar calendar basis).

Italian crude steel production increased by 10.2% in March 2026 compared to February, signaling a moderate recovery in the EU's second-largest steel-producing nation. However, industry analysts at GMK Center note that despite the monthly gain, total output still faces headwinds from high energy costs and administrative friction regarding Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) reporting.