Báo Ninh Bình•28/04/2026
According to strategist Rodolphe Bohn, gold has had a volatile start to 2026, with prices falling from $5,415 per ounce at the end of January to $4,400 on March 26 as the conflict with Iran escalated.
During this period of risk aversion, oil prices surged, the USD strengthened as a favored safe-haven asset, bond yields rose while stocks fell. Gold did not function as a purely geopolitical hedge as investors sold gold to increase liquidity while the USD absorbed much of the safe-haven demand.
However, the recent ceasefire suggests that gold could recover quickly once the market stabilizes.
The relationship between gold and oil prices is dynamic and can change depending on the nature of the shock. When conflict erupts, the gold-oil relationship quickly neutralizes as the two commodities move in opposite directions. When the USD strengthens, both oil and gold prices are under pressure, but the Middle East oil supply shock pushed oil prices higher even as the USD's rise put pressure on gold prices. In the current market environment, a sharp rise in oil prices does not necessarily trigger similar dynamics for gold prices.
Monetary policy remains a key factor in the future direction of precious metals, and while HSBC doesn't expect gold to be boosted by interest rate cuts, persistent inflation and rising growth risks will continue to support gold.
High real yields could be a drag on gold because the precious metal does not yield. Long-term yields have become more important since the conflict began, rising alongside a stronger USD, weaker equities, and higher oil prices. While HSBC still expects the Fed's policy interest rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026 and 2027 – a factor that could limit gold's upside – the risk of stagflation will continue to support gold demand.
HSBC also believes that sustained fiscal dynamics and central bank demand will support gold prices in the long term.
Deficits and rising debt levels in the US and many other countries are driving demand for hard assets, especially as investors worry about financial stability and policy space. The IMF estimates US public debt will reach nearly 100% of GDP in 2025, and rising defense spending globally is increasing the debt burden. These developments are unlikely to reverse in the medium term, thus supporting gold prices in the long term.
Central bank demand for gold has cooled from its peak in 2022-2024, and some central banks have sold gold to maintain foreign exchange reserves amid rising energy import bills and defense spending. Nevertheless, demand from central banks is expected to improve towards the end of the year as long-term diversification policies are reaffirmed.
Besides investment demand, strategist Rodolphe Bohn also stated that high gold prices are reshaping physical supply and demand, with demand for gold jewelry being particularly affected.
Demand for gold coins remains weak, while demand for large-sized gold bars from institutions remains stable, supported by regulatory changes in markets such as India and China. On the supply side, mine output is expected to increase slightly in 2026-2027, and recycling activity will increase as higher prices push more scrap metal back into the market.
These changes help increase the amount of gold available to investors. If investment demand remains weak for an extended period, the additional supply could curb price increases. However, demand from retail investors is becoming increasingly important to gold prices.
The short-term trend for gold depends on a broader de-escalation in the Middle East – a continued ceasefire or progression to a complete end to the conflict in the region, the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and stable, lower oil prices. Such conditions would help ease financial tensions, alleviate inflation concerns, and support bond yields.
HSBC maintains a positive outlook on gold in the medium and long term.
Source: https://baoninhbinh.org.vn/hsbc-gia-vang-se-tang-do-rui-ro-tai-khoa-lo-ngai-dinh-lam-260428110923190.html
