Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,963/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead moved sideways within the range of $1,959.5-1,966.5/mt, touching a high of $1,966.5/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead prices turned to fluctuate downward, dipping to a low of $1,947/mt. Supported by LME lead destocking, LME lead rebounded and eventually closed at $1,963.5/mt, up 0.15%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,740 yuan/mt. It briefly fluctuated downward at the beginning of the session, dipping to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt, then rebounded and eventually closed at a high of 16,785 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Its open interest reached 64,643 lots, an increase of 439 lots from the previous trading day.
On the macro front:
White House: Trump discussed Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposal with senior aides. US media: Trump was skeptical of Iran's proposal but did not outright reject it. Trump: maintained contact with both Putin and Zelensky. Hezbollah leader: firmly rejected direct negotiations with Israel. Russian President Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. OpenAI and Microsoft reached a "ceasefire agreement." NBS: From January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. NDRC: prohibited foreign acquisition of the Manus project and demanded the transaction be revoked. National Energy Administration: will coordinate with the NDRC to scientifically plan hydrogen energy industry development goals and tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan period. China National Space Administration: made forward-looking arrangements for new industries such as space computing power and space manufacturing.
Spot fundamentals:
Yesterday, SHFE lead held up well. On the spot side, warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were scarce, and some suppliers intended to ship to delivery warehouses. Cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters were also quoted firmly, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with most shipments made at premiums. On the secondary lead side, smelter maintenance increased, supply in east China was tight, and some smelters shipped at premiums. Regional price spreads widened, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. As the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement needs, inquiries were also few, and spot order market trading was sluggish.
Inventory: As of April 27, LME lead inventory decreased by 325 mt to 269,700 mt. SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking.
Lead price forecast for today:
On the consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through in just-in-time procurement. Supply side, affected by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts and production suspension, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten; meanwhile, primary lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. The current market presented a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.
![SHFE Lead Saw a Balanced Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Intraday, Oscillating Throughout the Day to Close with a Doji [Lead Futures Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/mfCMp20251217171721.jpeg)
