China's Cost and Supply Landscape Drove Growth, SiMn Exports Rose Both YoY and MoM in March [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest release by the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China's ferrosilicon manganese exports in March 2026 totaled 6,161.003 mt, up 213.48% MoM and up 579.32% YoY. From January to March, China's total ferrosilicon manganese exports reached 10,665.897 mt, up 116.0% YoY.

In March, the Chinese SiMn market was the first to see a rising cost trend, which became the foundation for firm export quotes and increased willingness among enterprises to export.Import prices of the core raw material manganese ore continued to climb, with ore prices remaining firm at high levels. Coupled with the Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushing up international oil prices, ocean freight rates and domestic energy costs rose in tandem, directly causing SiMn production costs to shift significantly higher and forcing enterprises to raise product quotes to safeguard profit margins. Against this backdrop, the SiMn futures and spot markets formed a synchronized upward pattern — strong futures drove spot prices to follow suit, and the rise in domestic prices also supported export quotes to remain competitive.

The tightening of domestic supply further drove enterprises to turn to markets outside China to absorb their output, becoming a key driver behind the sharp increase in exports.In March, the supply side of SiMn enterprises showed a clear contraction trend. Although northern production bases had certain electricity price advantages, affected by losses and industry-wide deficits, multiple enterprises in core production areas such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had announced production cuts starting from April by month-end of March, involving the shutdown or production restrictions of multiple submerged arc furnaces, with capacity release constrained. In south China, regions such as Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan maintained low overall operating rates due to high electricity prices and inability to cover costs, with weak willingness to resume production, further exacerbating the tight domestic supply situation. Meanwhile, the recovery in demand for SiMn from the five major steel products in China in March was limited, unable to fully absorb existing capacity. To ease inventory pressure and lock in profits, enterprises turned their attention to markets outside China, becoming an important internal driver behind the surge in exports.

The demand dividends from markets outside China resonated with the domestic market dynamics, ultimately contributing to the growth in ferrosilicon manganese exports in March.Restocking demand from steel mills in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions was released in a concentrated manner, while the rising SiMn futures and spot prices and price support from tight domestic supply enabled Chinese enterprises to maintain reasonable profit margins in ex-China quotes. With multiple factors converging, export orders from Chinese enterprises were fulfilled in a concentrated manner, driving ferrosilicon manganese exports in March to achieve growth both YoY and MoM.

From the perspective of import and export regional structure, SiMn exports were primarily destined for Indonesia.

Regarding the sustainability of future SiMn alloy exports: macro perspective, it is necessary to track the transmission effects of changes in the global economic environment on the overall SiMn market; fundamentals side, the focus should be on the pace of recovery in steel production demand outside China, as well as changes in capacity release and cost control among Chinese SiMn producers.