US Dollar Weakened, LME Zinc Edged Up [SMM Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,325.5/mt. At the start of the session, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,365.5/mt during European trading hours. Bears then increased their positions, and the center of LME zinc moved downward, touching a low of $3,314.5/mt during the night session. Subsequently, bears reduced their positions and the center lifted, ultimately closing higher at $3,340/mt, up $17/mt or 0.51%. Trading volume increased to 10,950 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,418 lots to 215,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,750 yuan/mt. It briefly rose at the start of the session to touch a high of 23,785 yuan/mt. Bears then increased their positions, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session to touch a low of 23,610 yuan/mt, ultimately closing lower at 23,660 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt or 0.55%. Trading volume decreased to 35,832 lots, and open interest increased by 860 lots to 74,221 lots.
Macro:
US officials: The US government will end Iran's maritime oil sanctions waivers this week; Trump said talks with Iran could be held in Pakistan "possibly within the next two days"; Sources: Iran is considering suspending its shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; The US March PPI annual rate came in at 4%, below market expectations; China's State Council General Office issued the "Several Opinions on Improving the Drug Pricing Mechanism"; In Q1 2026, China's total goods trade import and export value exceeded 11 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period historically.
Spot market:
Shanghai: The refined zinc purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai region was 2.1, and the shipment sentiment was 2.75. Zinc futures prices rose MoM during the morning session. Wait-and-see sentiment re-emerged among downstream enterprises, with fewer inquiries and purchases yesterday compared to the day before. Traders' offers remained relatively firm. Spot premiums in Shanghai held steady from the previous day. Attention is on subsequent downstream consumption performance.
Guangdong: The refined zinc purchasing sentiment in the Guangdong region was 1.8, and the sales sentiment was 2.9. Zinc prices rose MoM yesterday. Although traders' offers remained relatively firm, fear of high prices was strong among downstream enterprises due to elevated prices, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach, and spot market transactions weakened.
Tianjin: The refined zinc purchasing sentiment in the Tianjin region was 1.91, and the shipment sentiment was 2.51. Zinc prices rebounded yesterday. Some downstream enterprises placed orders to replenish inventory the day before. Fewer price inquiries were received yesterday. Traders' shipments remained at significant discounts, and overall market transactions weakened compared to the previous day.
Ningbo: The center of zinc prices moved higher yesterday, but traders' offers in the market remained firm. Spot premiums held steady from the previous day. Downstream enterprises had mostly purchased the day before and held certain inventory levels. Fewer inquiries were made yesterday, and overall spot transactions deteriorated somewhat.
Social inventory: On April 14, LME zinc inventory increased by 4,150 mt to 115,925 mt, up 3.71%. According to SMM communications, as of April 13, China's inventory increased.
Zinc Price Forecast: LME zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick overnight. Prospects of new peace talks between the US and Iran pushed the US dollar lower to its weakest level since February. Non-ferrous metals rose broadly. Expectations of weakening zinc ingot supply outside China supported LME zinc's center shifting upward, and LME zinc is expected to trade in a range-bound pattern today. SHFE zinc recorded a small bearish candlestick overnight. Macro sentiment improved, but China continued to see inventory buildup, with overall consumption falling short of expectations. Fundamentals weighed on zinc price movements, and SHFE zinc is expected to trade in a range-bound pattern today.

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