Resources, Cost, and Performance: Assessment of the Future Market Landscape for Zinc Alloys and Brass

SMM April 14 :

Against the backdrop of supply chain security, the deep advancement of the dual-carbon strategy, and industrialization in China, zinc alloys and brass, both serving as industrial metals in terminal industrial metal manufacturing, have seen increasing mutual substitution. This article analyzes the future prospects of the zinc alloy market and the brass market from the perspectives of resource outlook, cost, and performance.

As the name suggests, zinc alloys are primarily composed of metallic zinc (with zinc content generally above 95%), while brass is mainly a copper-zinc alloy (with mainstream copper content ranging from 60% to 70%).

Mineral resources, global zinc concentrates production currently exceeds 12 million mt, showing a slight surplus on a balance basis. China's import dependency for zinc concentrates stands at around 39%. Smelting perspective, due to new energy capacity release and relatively stable consumption, zinc's long-term surplus pattern remains unchanged, with relatively sufficient supply. In contrast, global copper concentrates production is around 20 million mt, which is in a severe shortage on an ore balance basis. Import dependency is approaching 80%, with copper ore heavily reliant on imports. Compounded by geopolitical conflicts, shipping disruptions, and TC fluctuations, raw material supply shortages have been further exacerbated. Meanwhile, copper cathode is expected to gradually shift from a mild surplus to a tight balance, driven by smelting capacity replacement and consumption growth in new energy and power sectors. Supply side, there are expectations of tightness, and the tightening supply of brass raw materials constrains the future development of the brass industry.

Cost side, the price of raw material zinc ingot is less than 24,000 yuan/mt, while copper cathode is priced at 100,000 yuan/mt. The calculated raw material cost of zinc alloy is only about one-third that of brass, and the advantage of zinc alloy is particularly prominent when copper prices are elevated. Moreover, zinc alloy has lower energy consumption and less processing loss, resulting in a significant reduction in overall manufacturing costs.

Performance side, through composition optimization and process improvement, the strength, hardness, wear resistance, ductility, and electrical conductivity of zinc alloy have been continuously enhanced, approaching or even partially surpassing brass. Zinc alloy has achieved varying degrees of substitution in end-user sectors such as architectural hardware, electronics and electrical appliances, automotive parts, and daily-use hardware. Meanwhile, in accordance with the national standard (GB/T 13818-2024 "Die-Casting Zinc Alloy"), zinc alloy requires low lead and low cadmium content, complying with environmental protection standards such as the EU RoHS, giving it a compliance advantage in export and high-end markets.

Production side, according to SMM statistics, China's zinc alloy production was around 1.83 million mt in 2024, increasing to over 1.87 million mt in 2025, up 40,000 mt YoY. In contrast, brass production was 1.52 million mt in 2024, declining to 1.47 million mt in 2025, down 50,000 mt YoY.

Overall, the substitution of brass by zinc alloy is not only a commercial choice for enterprises to reduce costs and improve efficiency, but also an important pathway for safeguarding national resource security and promoting high-quality development of the metallurgical industry.

Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.