Codelco Said Middle East Conflict Drove Up Costs, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.4.14 Tuesday
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $12,865/mt, dipping to $12,859/mt early in the session before the price center gradually shifted upward in a fluctuating trend, touching a high of $13,133/mt near the close, and ultimately settling at $13,123.5/mt, up 2.07%. Trading volume reached 27,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 1,540 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 99,760 yuan/mt, touching a low of 99,520 yuan/mt early in the session before the price center gradually shifted upward to 100,940 yuan/mt, then moved sideways and ultimately settled at 100,820 yuan/mt, up 1.67%. Trading volume reached 50,000 lots, and open interest stood at 170,000 lots, down 1,518 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On April 13 (Monday), Codelco Chairman Maximo Pacheco said the conflict between the US and Israel with Iran had caused price surges that pushed up its production costs, but the company remained on track to meet this year's output target. The company's copper production target for this year is 1.344 million mt, and it aims to further increase production to 1.7 million mt by 2030. In 2022 and 2023, its copper production fell to a 25-year low. Maximo Pacheco said the Middle East conflict pushed its copper cash production costs up by at least ¢10/lb, "which is a significant figure." "The biggest challenge facing the industry is operational continuity, and we see copper production becoming more difficult every day." Before prices began to rise, Codelco purchased enough sulphuric acid for the entire year's production needs. Maximo Pacheco said the company's Q1 copper production was 271,300 mt. Due to planned maintenance, production declined YoY but remained within expectations.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of April 13, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened lower and then moved sideways in a fluctuating trend. The opening price was 99,250 yuan/mt. After opening, prices quickly dropped, dipping to 98,500 yuan/mt, then fluctuated between 98,300 yuan/mt and 98,400 yuan/mt. Prices subsequently pulled back, fluctuating between 98,600 yuan/mt and 98,900 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 98,880 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 100 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper near-month import profit margin was at a loss of 340 yuan/mt to 250 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to maintain a relatively strong tone. From the market performance perspective, although some suppliers engaged in offloading during the session, selling part of their cargoes at low prices, this did not suppress spot premiums, with overall quotes remaining firm, reflecting strong support below current premiums. From the delivery logic perspective, as the delivery date draws closer, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts still maintains a certain width, and suppliers' willingness to hold positions for delivery persists, supporting spot premiums. In addition, some suppliers may begin making tentative offers against the next-month contract today, with market focus gradually shifting to pricing after the contract rollover. Overall, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to maintain premiums today.
(2) Guangdong: On April 13, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 98,930 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 98,835 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, although inventories declined for 19 consecutive sessions, rising copper prices weakened downstream consumption, and trading activity was lackluster.
(3) Imported copper: On April 13, the average warrant price rose $2/mt from the previous trading day to $75/mt (price range $70–80/mt); the average B/L price rose $3/mt from the previous trading day to $72/mt (price range $66–78/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $41/mt (price range $36–46/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from late April to early-to-mid May.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 13, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 98,780 yuan/mt, up 360 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 80 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On April 13, copper scrap prices rose 600 yuan/mt DoD. The copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.59, while the procurement sentiment index fell to 2.31. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 460 yuan/mt, down 167 yuan/mt DoD. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,390 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices rose, many copper scrap suppliers actively made shipments, but downstream purchase willingness was weak due to concerns that overseas geopolitical policy uncertainties could cause copper price fluctuations, and market transactions were tepid.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump said Iran proactively called hoping to reach a deal, but the US would never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. The US and Iran remained in contact, with the next round of negotiations likely to be held soon in Islamabad, and a ceasefire extension was expected. Israel's Prime Minister warned that the ceasefire might end soon and expressed support for a US naval blockade. The US demanded Iran suspend uranium enrichment for 20 years, while Iran only agreed to a single-digit number of years. The US had already imposed maritime transit restrictions and deployed over 15 warships. Vance said significant progress had been made in negotiations, and the second round of talks depended on Iran. The market held expectations for further negotiations, which, combined with supply-side shortages and demand resilience, provided bullish support for copper prices. Supply side, domestic arrivals were limited, imported copper replenishment was insufficient, and the overall supply remained tight. Demand side, copper prices fluctuated at highs, downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement, and consumption was stable. Inventory side, as of April 13 (Monday), SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 12.52% WoW, marking five consecutive weeks of destocking, providing support for copper price upside. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate upward within a narrow range today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]