[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] US-Iran Ceasefire Boosts Stainless Steel Futures Higher, Stainless Steel Spot Market Shows Signs of Warmth

SMM April 8 reported that SS futures showed a strengthening and upward-probing trend. Influenced by the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, non-ferrous metal futures generally strengthened at the morning opening, with SS futures rising in tandem, closing at 14,325 yuan/mt by the midday session. Spot market side, driven by news, the strengthening of SS futures boosted spot market activity, with inquiry enthusiasm increasing notably; although downstream buyers had not yet accepted higher offers, traders had already raised their quotes.

The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed upward. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,265 yuan/mt, up 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 155-355 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was flat and in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady.

The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April." Downstream demand fundamentals recovered compared to the earlier period, with end-user procurement continuing at a rigid-demand pace, and overall trading volume was sufficient to sustain basic market vitality. However, affected by macro news disturbances and futures fluctuations, downstream end-user clients maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, showing no willingness to stockpile, and transactions fluctuated with news developments. Futures side, although the US-Iran conflict saw a temporary ceasefire, geopolitical conflict risks remained elevated, and cautious sentiment persisted in the market, limiting the upside of SS futures and making it difficult to effectively drive the spot market. Supply and inventory side, steel mills' April production schedules for stainless steel remained at relatively high levels, with the high-supply pattern unchanged, exerting certain digestion pressure on the market; coupled with month-end concentrated distribution of goods from steel mills to the market, although downstream demand continued to be supported by rigid needs, stainless steel social inventory rose this week, but the increase was limited. Currently, steel mills primarily focused on stabilizing prices for shipments to ease inventory and supply pressure. Cost side, nickel ore prices remained firm, leaving limited room for nickel pig iron price compression; however, stainless steel mills were already on the verge of cost-driven losses, with low acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream continued, keeping stainless steel production costs running relatively stable; earlier market expectations that cost support would underpin stainless steel prices had gradually dissipated. Overall, the core contradiction in the stainless steel market this week lay in the mismatch between high supply and steady yet cautious demand. Although the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season supported downstream demand fundamentals, and cost factors also limited the downside space for stainless steel prices to some extent, strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment, significant transaction disturbances from news, and lingering macro uncertainties persisted. Based on comprehensive analysis, whether stainless steel prices can strengthen and probe upward going forward still depends on further impetus from the macro news front.