Frequent Supply Disruptions Outside China: SMM Updates Global Zinc Concentrates Supply-Demand Balance

SMM Apr 8 News:

Q1 has already passed, and during Q1 this year, disruptions to zinc concentrates outside China occurred frequently. In addition to short-term shipment disruptions in Iran and Australia, some mines also lowered their own production guidance, prompting SMM to adjust the global zinc concentrates supply-demand balance accordingly.

On March 14, Boliden's Garpenberg mine halted production due to seismic activity. Subsequently, on March 25, Boliden disclosed that seismic activity at the Garpenberg mine had subsided, but infrastructure such as ventilation, compressed air systems, water management, electrical infrastructure, and backfill paste had been damaged and required refurbishment, which was expected to take several more weeks. Furthermore, some ore bodies will not be accessible for mining in 2026, and production from other mining areas will commence in Q2. Based on the current situation, Boliden's preliminary assessment indicated that production will begin in Q2, initially at approximately 100 kt per month, roughly 30% of the level prior to the abnormally high seismic activity, and the assessment also suggested that production is likely to increase in H2. It is understood that the Garpenberg mine's zinc concentrates production was 101,700 mt in metal content in 2025, and its production in 2026 is expected to be revised downward.

In addition, production data from major mines outside China for 2025 have largely been released, and some mines have updated their production guidance for future years. Taking into account both annual guidance and supply-side disruptions, SMM has updated its global zinc concentrates supply-demand balance forecast. Based on the results, the tightness in the global zinc concentrates supply-demand balance has intensified in2026. The details are as follows:

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)