[SMM Analysis] Manganese-based Battery Materials Market Analysis：Cost-driven Divergence with Demand Recovery Ahead

1. Battery-grade Manganese Sulfate

Strong cost support drives further price increases.

• Supply: Operating rates stay high, but spot availability is tight with low inventories, some below safety levels.
• Demand: Downstream rigid demand is stable, with most transactions under long-term contracts.
• Outlook: Prices are expected to rise further as high sulfuric acid costs, tight supply and elevated freight persist, supported by steady domestic orders.

2. Battery-grade Trimanganese Tetroxide

Driven by costs and recovering demand, prices edge up.

• Supply: Stable operation, orderly inventory control, no overstock pressure.
• Demand: Downstream lithium manganate demand is improving, with early inventories nearly depleted and restocking interest rising.
• Outlook: Supported by high-priced electrolytic manganese and manganese sulfate, prices will extend modest gains amid improving supply-demand balance.

3. Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide

Steady performance supported by mild rigid demand.

• Supply: Normal operating rates, manageable overall inventories.
• Demand: Post-holiday downstream demand has recovered moderately, supported by persistent rigid procurement.
• Outlook: Supported by high raw material costs and environmental compliance expenses, prices will remain stable with limited fluctuations.

4. Lithium Manganate

Stable in wait-and-see mode, awaiting April demand recovery.

• Supply: Industry operations back to normal, with leading manufacturers maintaining stable production.
• Demand: Market caution persists due to volatile lithium carbonate prices; procurement is restrained.
• Outlook: Short-term prices to stay stable. With expected mild rises in lithium carbonate and a demand recovery in April, prices may inch up.