I. Manganese Sulphate: Strong Cost Support Drives Another Price Increase

The current battery-grade manganese sulphate market, driven primarily by sharply rising costs, elevated freight rates, and stable domestic orders, saw further strengthening upward momentum. Prices held up well, and market transactions were still mainly centered on long-term contract fulfillment.

Supply side: Overall industry operating levels were sufficient, with stable cargo release; industry inventory pressure was relatively small, and some enterprises had inventory below safety levels. The overall tight supply pattern is difficult to change in the short term, providing solid support for further price increases.

Demand side: Downstream rigid demand was steady, and domestic orders remained generally stable, with most orders executed through long-term contracts. The share of long-term contract transactions stayed high. Although spot order transactions were relatively light, overall demand support remained solid.

Outlook: The trend of sharply rising costs is expected to continue. Sulphur and sulphuric acid prices fluctuate at highs, and the tight supply pattern is unlikely to change in the short term. Coupled with additional cost pressure from persistently elevated freight rates, this will continue to provide strong upward impetus to manganese sulphate prices. On the supply side, the tight spot pattern is unlikely to ease quickly; on the demand side, domestic orders are stable and rigid demand remains steady, which can effectively absorb further price increases.

II. Mn3O4: Costs and Demand Jointly Drive a Slight Price Increase

The current battery-grade Mn3O4 market, under the combined drivers of sharply rising costs, recovering downstream demand, and the gradual drawdown of earlier inventory, showed a slight upward price trend, and market trading sentiment improved significantly from the previous period.

Supply side: Overall operations were stable, with the industry operating rate maintained within a reasonable range. Mainstream enterprises managed inventory in an orderly manner, and there was no obvious inventory buildup pressure for the time being.

Demand side: Demand from the downstream LMO industry gradually recovered, and previously stockpiled raw material inventory was nearly depleted. Producers' purchase willingness increased, and inquiry and transaction activity improved, providing effective support for prices.

Outlook: Cost side support continues to strengthen. Upstream EMM and manganese sulphate prices fluctuate at highs, building a solid floor for Mn3O4 prices and limiting downside room. Meanwhile, demand from the downstream LMO industry is steadily recovering, and restocking demand is expected to be further released after inventory is depleted, with the supply-demand pattern continuing to improve. Overall, the battery-grade Mn3O4 market is expected to maintain a slight upward trend in the short term, with prices holding up well.

III. MnO2: Stable Operations With Mild Rigid-Demand Support

The current EMD market operated steadily overall, with no obvious fluctuations, as the industry gradually transitioned from the post-resumption adjustment period to a stage of stable operations.

Supply side: The overall industry operating rate remained within a reasonable range. From the inventory perspective, overall industry inventory remains manageable, with smooth inventory turnover at top-tier enterprises and no evident inventory buildup pressure for now.

Demand side: As downstream enterprises gradually resumed work and production after the holiday, procurement demand from downstream primary battery, LMO, and other industries rebounded significantly from the previous period. Although no large-scale concentrated procurement emerged, just-in-time procurement continued to be released, providing some support to prices.

Outlook: In the short term, the market’s core operating logic has not changed significantly: On the cost side, the pattern of manganese carbonate ore and sulphuric acid prices fluctuating at highs is unlikely to change in the short term, environmental protection compliance costs have become normalized, raw material cost support remains rigid, and enterprise quotations will continue to hold the line. Going forward, the EMD market will continue its stable operating trend, with prices largely stable and only slight fluctuations, leaving limited room for movement.

IV. LMO: Stable With a Wait-and-See Stance, Awaiting Demand Recovery in April

At present, China’s LMO market is operating steadily overall, with prices remaining stable. The core reason is that lithium carbonate prices upstream have been moving wildly, and strong wait-and-see sentiment prevails in the market, with both upstream and downstream enterprises maintaining a cautious stance.

Supply side: The industry’s operating pace has continued to improve and has gradually returned to normal levels. Top-tier enterprises have maintained stable production schedules, fully ensured long-term contract deliveries, and achieved ample capacity release.

Demand side: Wait-and-see sentiment currently dominates the market. Affected by wild swings in lithium carbonate prices, downstream enterprises still show low procurement enthusiasm and do not purchase blindly. Market inquiries and transactions remain stable, and no large-scale concentrated procurement has appeared.

Outlook: Short-term fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices will continue, and market wait-and-see sentiment is unlikely to dissipate quickly. The cautious stance of upstream and downstream enterprises will also continue, and LMO prices will remain stable without large fluctuations. Based on industry expectations, lithium carbonate prices are expected to show a slight upward trend in the future market, and cost support will gradually strengthen; meanwhile, downstream industry demand is expected to recover fully in April, procurement demand will be gradually released, and, together with restocking demand after earlier inventory is depleted, this will effectively boost market activity. Overall, LMO prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. After demand recovers in April, prices are expected to rise slightly. Going forward, close attention should be paid to lithium carbonate price trends and the pace of downstream demand recovery.