Social Inventory Plunged, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Held Steady Amid Bargaining [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM, March 23:

In early trading, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened lower with a gap and then rebounded, before fluctuating rangebound. It opened down and fell to a low of 91,890 yuan/mt, then rebounded to around 92,800 yuan/mt. Prices then fluctuated between 92,600 yuan/mt and 93,100 yuan/mt, before touching a high of 93,130 yuan/mt and pulling back, with the closing price at 92,620 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts was between Contango 30 yuan/mt and Backwardation 20 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between a profit of 240 yuan/mt and a profit of 320 yuan/mt.

Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai stood at 2.78, down 0.04 MoM, while procurement sentiment was 2.65, down 0.15 MoM. . At the start of early trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to 50 yuan/mt, with JCC and Lufang quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 40 yuan/mt; Jinchuan isa, Tiefeng, Zijin, Honglu, and Jinchuan isa Yongchang were quoted at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt; Jinguan, Jinxin, Jinfeng, and Jintun PC were quoted ex-works at discounts of 40 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt; high-quality copper such as Guixi, Jinchuan (plate), and Jintun plate was quoted at premiums of 10 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, suppliers slightly lowered prices. Standard-quality copper such as Tiefeng, Honglu, and Dajiang HS was quoted at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt, while Zhongjin, Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, and OLYDA were successively traded at discounts of 90 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt; high-quality copper Guixi was successively traded at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to parity.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to maintain a bargaining pattern. Intraday, copper prices declined somewhat, and downstream enterprises showed stronger restocking sentiment, but considering the concentrated bulk replenishment last week, actual incremental procurement remained relatively limited. Inventory side, according to SMM, total social inventory in Shanghai and Jiangsu fell by about 41,600 mt, showing a sharp destocking trend. Intraday, suppliers' quotations were steady at first and then declined, and they actively sold as premiums rebounded, with selling behavior weighing on spot prices. In addition, some suppliers had already used cargoes with invoices dated next month to quote against the SHFE copper 2604 contract during the day, indirectly reflecting moderate sales volume within the month and strong willingness to sell. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier selling, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.